A move up from the Mountain West Conference to the Pac-12 would have been too big of a jump for a Wyoming or Colorado State team to make. For Mountain West member Utah, however, it was a move that was long overdue.
It’s been a long time coming for the Utes, who had the resume of a top college football program, but somehow was still eating at the kids table. Come fall, though, Utah will make the move to dine with the big boys of college football, joining the Pac-12.
There are a number of reasons, and numbers, that stack up to believe the move will be a smooth transition for the Utes. But don’t forget to look at the situation from the opposite standpoint. There are even more that suggest the move, although still deserving, may get off to a rocky start.
First, the good news:
Never shying away from stiff competition has been something the Utes have prided themselves on and burying that competition, while silencing the small conference critics, is something the Utes have excelled at over the last decade.
In the last three years the Utes have compiled a 7-2 record against teams from BCS conferences, and Notre Dame. They’ve averaged 30.6 points scored in those games, gaining an average of 377 offensive yards. Impressive numbers for any team playing against the top level of competition.
They’ve had two undefeated seasons the last decade, including one in 2008 that ended with a Sugar Bowl win over SEC power Alabama. The Crimson Tide came into that game highly favored and rolling on an already 12 win season. They left with their second loss of the year and just 208 total yards to their credit.
Now the bad news:
Of the nine BCS conference teams the Utes played in the last three years, an average season ending record of the teams was 7-5. Seven wins isn’t bad by any means, but it’s also not as stiff of competition as first believed.
The number of penalties the Utes committed a game last season rose from 5.85 a game to 8.66 against BCS competition, an average number that would have been dead last in college football. In fact, in the last three years the number of penalties the Utes committed in the nine games against BCS competition was 79, good for an average of 8.77 a game.
Penalties can amount from a number of different circumstances. From mental miscues and over intensity, to getting beat in coverage or pushed around on the line. With Utah’s large amount of penalties coming against a higher level of competition, it would suggest the latter.
The Utes will also need to carry the same level of intensity and focus they displayed against BCS opponents in the past, only this time, in every week of the season. The biggest question the Utes will have to answer, however, is whether or not they can play at such a high level from week to week. A lot of teams can win a big game, but can they win eight big games in a row?
Utah’s 2010 season ending performance would suggest they’ve got some work to do before they’re ready to handle the intensity of a BCS conference schedule. Finishing the year on a 3-3 note, the Utes nearly blew a close one at Air Force, got blown out in consecutive weeks to TCU and Notre Dame, then needed fourth quarter comebacks to beat both San Diego State and BYU. All of which were bowl teams in 2010.
In the last game of the season, the Las Vegas Bowl, the Utes turned in a miserable performance against Boise State, losing 26-3. Utah had just 200 total offensive yards, while giving up 543 yards to the Broncos offense.
Next season, Utah catches a break without Oregon or Stanford on the schedule, but they will play at USC, at BYU, Washington, Arizona State, at Pittsburgh, at Cal, Oregon State and at Arizona. Tougher than any schedule they’ve faced before and don’t expect everyone to be nice to the new guy.
It’s hard to tell how the Utes will handle going from playing for an average of 35,000 fans a game to playing in front of 70,000 + fans in consecutive weeks. It’s hard to say how they’ll handle the heavy schedule, the new offense and the intensity of big time college football.
It’s hard to say because Utah hasn’t done it before. The best way to silence the critics is to put on the pads and play, though.
In the long run, it should be a favorable move for the program, but don’t be surprised if the Utes don’t have their usual 10 or 11 win season in 2011. Just like the move to a bigger conference took some time, so will building their reputation in the new Pac-12.
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