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2011 Conference Spring Previews and Early Predictions:

The Big XII Conference:
Oklahoma 12-2, Oklahoma State 11-2, Missouri 10-3, Texas A&M 9-4, Texas Tech 8-5, Baylor 7-6, Kansas State 7-6, Iowa State 5-7, Texas 5-7, Kansas 3-9
Reasons to be excited: For most conferences, the reason to get excited is the addition of a conference title game, like we’re seeing in the Pac-12 and Big Ten. For the Big 12, the reason to be excited is just the opposite. For the first time in conference history, which really isn’t long, the Big 12 will have an outright champion. Just like the ‘old’ Pac-10, all 10 teams in the league will play one another, giving way to an even more chaotic regular season.
Breakout player(s): Look for senior Baylor wideout Kendall Wright to become the next breakout wide receiver of the Big 12. It’s hard to say Wright hasn’t already done so, bringing in 78 catches for 952 yards last season, but eye popping numbers can be expected in 2011. He’s been quarterback Robert Griffin’s favorite target throughout and there’s no reason to expect 2011 will be any different. On defense, Oklahoma sophomore linebacker Tom Wort was overshadowed by Travis Lewis last season, but come next fall that will all change. Wort had 66 tackles and 4.5 sacks in his first season of starting, proving he’s got the on-field talent to be special. Don’t be surprised to see 100+ tackles and a great deal of tackles for loss on Wort’s resume next season.
Get to work on: The conference was nearly gutted before the season began last year, most notably because of the weighted top and cupcake bottom of the league. To keep other conferences away from stealing teams in the future, the league needs to up its level of competition from top to bottom. Texas having a down season last year didn’t help, while Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State need to hold their own in the out of conference schedule.
What to look for: Look for a whole lot of offense…again. The Big 12 had five of the top 25 teams in the nation in both total offense and passing offense last season, with seven teams scouring 30 or more points a game. With starting quarterbacks returning to six of the league’s 10 teams, it’s reasonable to believe huge numbers will again be put up next season. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State may boast the top offenses in the conference, but Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas Tech and Missouri should all be able to score with anyone.
Quarterback competitions: Quarterback competitions will headline the talk at Texas Tech, Kansas State and Missouri, but none will be talked about than the open competition at Texas. The Longhorns return 2010 starter Garrett Gilbert, but after a 5-7 record, an open completion isn’t a surprise. Gilbert’s challengers include Connor Wood, Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash, who’s in for spring. Gilbert may be the favorite to take the job, but it was McCoy who impressed most in the Longhorns recent spring scrimmage, completing nine of 11 passes for 124 yards and a score against the first team defense. Gilbert on the other hand struggled, completing eight of 15 passes for 76 yards and an interception. The Missouri competition seemed to be James Fanklin’s to lose heading into spring ball, but Tyler Gabbert, brother of Blaine, has grabbed hold of the co-No.1 job this spring.
Bold Prediction: Texas finished the 2010 season losing five of their last six and missed a bowl game for the first time in over a decade. The problems however, don’t look to be dissolved just one year removed from a 5-7 campaign. The starting quarterback is yet to be determined, the offensive line losses four out of five starters and the defense loses its top three cornerbacks and best pass rusher. There is still an ample amount of talent remaining, but as shown last season, talent alone doesn’t always produce wins. In an even more competitive Big 12, and against what looks to be a challenging schedule, don’t be surprised to see a four or five loss season in Austin.
How they’ll finish: The top of the Big 12 conference will be strong again in 2011. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and even Baylor, all have a viable shot at claiming a league title. Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State, however, make for a relatively frail bottom. Texas will be improved, but as stated before, the Longhorns are a year off from regaining their place amongst the top of the league. Kansas State and Missouri are darkhorse teams, where the fate of the team will ride on whichever quarterback steps up. Baylor, led by Griffin and an experienced defense, should compete with Oklahoma State for the third spot in the league. The October 29 meeting between Texas A&M and Oklahoma should decide the Big 12. The Sooners are a highly regarded as the favorite for the National Title next season, but those expectations will be hard to live up to. Led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, A&M returns 10 offensive starters and eight defensive starters on a team which finished the 2010 Big 12 schedule on a 6-0 run. The Aggies should be just as impressive in 2011. CHAMP: Texas A&M


The Pacific Athletic Conference:

Oregon 12-1, Stanford 12-1, Utah 10-3, USC 8-5, Arizona 7-6, Washington 7-6, Arizona State 6-6, California 5-7, Colorado 5-7, Oregon State 5-7, UCLA 4-8, Washington State 2-10
Reasons to be excited: Parity has taken over. The new PAC-12 has far more parity than the old and used PAC-10 conference. It seems hard to remember the days of USC’s dominance (not really), but it’s hard to point at any clear team walking away with the title next year, even with Oregon coming within a field goal of a National Championship last season. The balance in the conference mainly comes from the emergence of Stanford, otherwise known as Andrew Luck, but Arizona, Utah, USC and even Washington could all compete for the PAC-12 crown in 2011.
Breakout player(s): On offense, it’s Washington State wideout Marquess Wilson. As a true freshman last season, Wilson led the Cougars in receiving with 55 catches for 1,006 yards. He earned Freshman All-American honors last season, but he’ll compete for the All-American honors this year. On defense, watch for Washington linebacker Cort Dennison to break out. It’s hard to say Dennison didn’t do that last year, with 93 tackles, but with Mason Foster gone, he should load up even more.
Get to work on: Keeping the respect gained in 2010. For a while, the PAC-10 had been known as a weak league, soft compared to the other conferences. That changed last season, particularly in their non-conference play. Arizona’s early win over Iowa was a big morale boost to the conference. The league will get its chance again in 2011, with non-conference games scheduled against LSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State and OK State.
What to look for: Some struggles from new members Utah and Colorado. Changing conferences is never an easy process, particularly when you’re a rebuilding team. The Buffaloes face a daunting schedule with nearly every top conference team on board. Utah gets a bit easier ride, but taking the step up from the Mountain West to the PAC-12 will be a big task in its own. Getting accustomed to the play of PAC-12 teams may take a year or two.
Quarterback competitions: California will need to find a replacement for the underachieving Kevin Riley. The candidates include senior Brock Mansion, redshirt freshman Austin Hinder and sophomores Beau Sweeney and Zach Maynard. Mansion has the most experience at Cal, but smart money is on Hinder for the job. Washington has to fill big shoes in replacing Jake Locker. The battle will be between sophomore Kevin Price and redshirt freshman Nick Montana. Montana is the more highly regarded quarterback, but Price, who started the Oregon game, shouldn’t be downgraded. The Bruins have a quarterback controversy brewing between sophomores Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut.
Bold Prediction: Washington State will win five games in 2011. Considering the Cougars have won a total of five games the last three years, five wins would be a nice step forward. The offense appears to be way ahead of the defense at this point, so building the defense this spring will be the number one task at hand for the coaches. They can start by building around junior defensive end, Travis Long. The schedule shapes up with home games against Idaho State and UNLV, then a three game road stretch to San Diego State, Colorado and UCLA. A home game against Oregon State is another possible win opportunity. Based on how the Cougars finished and the play of quarterback Jeff Tuel, things don’t look as gloom for WSU in 2011.
How they’ll finish: The league is split into North and South divisions with the Arizona’s and USC to the South and Oregon, Stanford and obviously Washington, to the North. Those are pretty much the competitors in 2011. For the title game, look for the veteran quarterback play of Nick Foles and Andrew Luck to bring Arizona and Stanford to the Championship. Arizona may feel like a reach, but injuries killed the Wildcats down the stretch in 2010. Surprisingly, I like Stanford’s chances to win the conference, even without Harbaugh around. Keep an eye on Washington, they’ve gotten better every year under Sarkisian, but the Oregon vs. Stanford game will determine the North. CHAMP: Stanford

  
The Southeastern Conference:
Auburn 14-0, LSU 11-2, Arkansas 10-3, Alabama 10-3, South Carolina 9-5, Mississippi State 9-4, Florida 8-5, Georgia 6-7, Tennessee 6-7, Kentucky 6-7, Mississippi 4-8, Vanderbilt 2-10
Reasons to be excited: It’s still the best conference. Even with expansion in the Big Ten and PAC-10, the SEC’s dominance still holds a solid lead over all others in college football. After five straight National Championship winners, it’s hard to argue with the fact that other conferences haven’t been able to match the SEC. Again in 2011, up to five teams could compete for the National Title. Change and a lot of new faces will take the field come September, though.
Breakout player(s): The future of the Tennessee football program will be in the hands of sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray, and the young gun won’t disappoint Rocky Top. As a true freshman in 2010, Bray got a head start on impressing Tennessee faithful, starting the last five games for the Vol’s, ending with a 4-1 record. He passed for over 1,800 yards and 18 scores, with four 300 yard passing games. Expect huge numbers from Bray in 2011. On defense, the Gators will be faced with the tough task of replacing two standout safeties. Luckily, they’ve got another to throw into the lineup, in sophomore Matt Elam. After making an appearance in all 13 games as a freshman, Elam will help fill the holes left by Ahmad Black and Will Hill in 2011.
Get to work on: The biggest task the SEC faces is keeping the lofty expectations of their fan base in place. It’s no secret everyone wants to take down an SEC school, and numerous schools have a bulls-eye week after week during out of conference play. Alabama couldn’t repeat as champs in 2010, and although they’ve lost quarterback Cam Newton, Auburn will face the same repeat expectations and heavy shoulders the Tide faced last season.
What to look for: Look for a lot of replacements. Graduation and early entrees into the NFL Draft will inflict a blow to quite a few teams at the top of the SEC. The conference loses arguably its best three quarterbacks in Auburn’s Newton, Alabama’s Greg McElroy and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett. The drafts top wideouts – Georgia’s A.J. Green and ‘Bama’s Julio Jones – will be missed. Top defensive tackles Nick Fairley of Auburn, Marcell Dareus of Alabama and LSU’s Drake Nevis, will all need to be replaced.
Quarterback competitions: Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn will all face quarterback changes in 2011. The two competitions to keep an eye on the most are ones with quarterbacks returning, though, in LSU and Florida. The Tigers welcome back seniors Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, but neither has been helping or impressive throughout their career. Jefferson has been a playmaker at times, as shown against Texas A&M in the Bowl Game, but one will need to step up during spring practices to prove they're ready to lead the Tigers to a title. The Tigers also have junior college transfer and former Georgia quarterback Zach Mettenberger added to the mix. At Florida, it’s not a given senior John Brantley will return as the Gators starting quarterback. Brantley threw just nine scores to 10 interceptions in 2010 and now faces competition from sophomore Jordan Reed and highly touted true freshmen Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett.
Bold Prediction: They’ll be nearly singing and dancing all night long on Rocky Top. Tennessee will build on their impressive finish, ending a game shy of the SEC title game in the SEC East. The pieces are in place around Knoxville to have a return to prominence season. The Vol’s have been plagued by ugly seasons the last three years, but lead by quarterback Tyler Bray and a solid group of young talent and an improving offensive line, the Vol’s will bring a lot of excitement back to Tennessee. A confernece title, however, may be a year or two off.
How they’ll finish: The turnover at the top of the league should create an exciting SEC season. The loss of starting talent at Alabama will hurt the Tide more than most expect, as McElroy was an effective game manager, and wideout Julio Jones and running back Mark Ingram, helped the offense in more ways than by just making plays. Auburn will clearly miss Newton, while the loss of Mallett at Arkansas will slow the Razorbacks push. For fans of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina, often forgot of teams in the SEC, get your popcorn ready. A heavy group of talent and key pieces still remain. Even with quarterback questions, LSU is the strongest team and should take the competitive SEC West title. In the East, South Carolina will get their second shot at a title, lead by the three headed tandem of quarterback Stephen Garcia, running back Marcus Lattimore and wideout Alshon Jeffery. In the end, the Tigers will be too much to overcome. CHAMP: LSU


The Big Ten Conference:
Ohio State 12-1, Michigan State 11-2, Wisconsin 11-2, Nebraska 10-4, Iowa 8-5, Michigan 7-6, Penn State 7-6, Northwestern 7-6, Illinois 7-6, Indiana 5-7, Purdue 4-8, Minnesota 3-9
Reason to be excited: The conference finally expanded to an even number of teams, which in result, a championship game and two separate leagues have been formed. There’s always been a thought that the final member would be Notre Dame, but surprisingly, it was Nebraska who stepped up to the plate. The Huskers will be a good fit, though, and the added championship game will make for a better showing of conference games. The league names, Legends and Leaders, aren’t anything to be excited about.
Breakout player (s): Iowa has turned out some good linebackers over the years, with Desmond Bishop and Chad Greenway, coming to mind. The next on the list is sophomore James Morris. As a true freshman, he brought in 70 tackles as an injury replacement. Morris will have the starting spot to himself in 2011 and will become a star. On offense, watch the Michigan receiving core. It’s a deep and talented group, and with Michigan switching back to a pro style offense, it should allow for an emergence of a couple of players. I like redshirt freshman Ricardo Miller’s chances of having a breakout season in Ann Arbor.
Get to work on: A big key this spring will be getting the quarterback battles settled. Eight teams in the league will have open quarterback competitions in the spring. Quarterback could be a messy situation for the Big Ten next season if enough work isn’t put into spring evaluations and practices. The big ones are Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska. Don’t be surprised to see one in Ann Arbor, either.
What to look for: Look for a far more balanced conference. Last season, Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana all turned in horrendous Big Ten records. Michigan and Northwestern weren’t far behind. In years past, the league has been far more even, I’d expect the Big Ten to get back to those days, especially with divided divisions. With new coaches throughout and a spread of wealth at the top of the conference, a few major turnarounds can be expected.
Quarterback competitions: As touched on before, there are numerous teams heading into spring with open competitions. A couple to keep an eye on will be those at Penn State and Wisconsin. Penn State has the biggest mess, with four quarterbacks competing for the starting nod. Juniors Kevin Newsome and Matt McGloin will battle sophomore Robert Boldin and redshirt freshman Paul Jones. Boldin began the year at the starter in 2010, but later lost it to McGloin. With the chunk of the Big Ten schedule under him, McGloin should be the favorite for 2011. In Madison, Badgers sophomore quarterback Jon Budmayr looks in a race with junior Curt Phillips and redshirt freshman Joe Brennan. Really a two man race between Budmayr and Brennan, the more experienced Budmayr should take the job.
Bold prediction: In 2010, Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa broke onto the Big Ten scene, becoming one of the better offensive players in the conference. In an upset of Iowa, though, Persa suffered a torn achillies injury, putting him on the shelf for the year. Persa doesn’t appear ready to go for spring practice, but in 2011, he’ll return to become Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and lead Northwestern to a third place finish in the conference. The Wildcats return 17 starters, including four offensive linemen and four out of five skill players.
How they’ll finish: A few teams will be heading into big transition stages, including Iowa and Wisconsin, so I’m putting them to the side for now. Michigan should face a transition stage as well, with the change in coaching. The competitors look to be Ohio State, Michigan State and Nebraska. I like Northwestern a lot in 2011, but not as possible Big Ten Champs. Michigan State looks to be on the rise, but the late season trip to Nebraska may be out of their league still . Ohio State will face some adversity with Pryor and others missing the first five games, but they’re talented enough to get through it. Nebraska, because of their defense and Ohio State, because of their offense, will meet in Indianapolis for the title. It looks to be a warm welcoming for Nebraska in 2011. CHAMP: Nebraska


The Atlantic Coast Conference:
Virginia Tech 11-3, Florida State 10-4, Maryland 9-4, NC State 9-4, North Carolina 8-5, Miami (FL 7-6, Boston College 7-6, Clemson 6-7, Georgia Tech 6-7, Virginia 4-8, Wake Forest 3-9, Duke 3-9
Reasons to be excited: It’s a new year and a fresh start for the ACC. The conferences high expectations and lofty goals set when the ACC expanded in 2004 have yet to be met, as every year the conference seems to be struggling for respect. It’s yet another season for the ACC to turn critics into believers and work towards becoming a top two or three conference, or at the least one that can compete with the SEC.
Breakout player(s): The Hurricanes have produced some pretty prominent running backs over the years with Edgerrine James, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore and Willis McGahee to name a few. Sophomore running back Lamar Miller has a chance to join that list next season. In a run happy Al Golden offense, Miller will take on the lead role. The Canes were 4-1 in games Miller had at least 11 carries, with the lone loss in a 163 yard performance against Virginia Tech. With NC State All-American linebacker Nate Irving graduated, a new face will emerge as the leader of the Wolfpack defense. Expect it to be linebacker Audie Cole. As a junior, Cole was often the next man to the ball behind Irving, posting 86 stops and five sacks.
Get to work on: Building the non-conference rep. The ACC was downright awful against non-conference teams in 2010, losing key games to start the year. The ACC failed to cash in on wins in early matchups against Oklahoma, Ohio State, Auburn, Boise State, LSU and even James Madison. The reason the ACC doesn’t get a whole lot of respect is because of its continuous non-conference dismay. They’ll get their chance again in 2011 with early games scheduled against Northwestern, Auburn, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State and Kansas State. At least they don’t back away from a challenge.
What to look for: A number of quarterbacks will be handed the starting reins right away in spring practice, including Tevin Washington at Georgia Tech, EJ Manuel at FSU, Tajh Boyd at Clemson, Mike Glennon at NC State and Logan Thomas at Virginia Tech. Sometimes a little competition is a good thing, though. With all being new starters in 2011, some early growing pains may come in spring camp with nobody pushing them from behind for their fresh new spots.
Quarterback competitions: While some teams have quarterbacks in waiting, a couple others have open competitions this spring. North Carolina has a battle lined up between probable starter Bryn Renner, freshman Marquis Williams and junior Braden Hanson. Virginia’s shakes up between sophomore Ross Metheny and redshirt freshman Michael Rocco. Miami’s seems to be the most interesting, though. Two year starter Jacory Harris will get competition from sophomore Stephen Morris, who started three games last season. The smart money is on Harris, now a senior, winning the job with Morris pushing him, but Morris can sling the rock with the best of them.
Bold Prediction: New Miami head coach Al Golden will lead Miami to its first ACC Championship appearance. Miami has had an immense amount of talent on their team for years now, what the ‘Canes were lacking under head coach Randy Shannon, however, was discipline and energy. Golden has already brought both to Miami in a short time frame. Expect the ‘Canes to play with a lot more fire than they've shown in years past. The skill sets and both lines are stacked and one of the two quarterbacks will be ready to lead. Miami even catches a break in the schedule with Terrelle Pryor and the Ohio State five having to sit out the Sept. 17 meeting.
How they’ll finish: It’s hard to put a finger on who’s going to compete every year in the ACC. Maryland was a good example of that last season, going from a two win team in 2009 to a 9-4 finish in 2010. Maryland should again have a fairly strong team, lead by new head coach Randy Edsall. Clemson looks to be another year or two away from making a step towards the top, though. Don’t expect a whole lot of improvement out of Wake Forest, as well. Behind Mike Glennon at quarterback, North Carolina State has a good shot to compete with Florida State for the Atlantic, but FSU is too loaded of a team not to make it back to the ACC Championship. In the Coastal division, Miami will take advantage of turnaround seasons at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina, as they squeeze their way into the title spot for the Coastal division. Virginia will improve by at least a couple of wins, though. The ACC will finally get what they’ve always wanted with an FSU vs. Miami matchup in the championship game. In the end, the Seminoles appear ahead of Miami. CHAMP: Florida State
All writing and views subject to © Drew P. Kochanny, All Rights Reserved. Photo's credited to rights owner.