Michigan State
(4-3) @ Michigan (4-2)
Vs.
3:30 ET, BTN,
Sat. Oct. 20, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Few could have foreseen
both of these teams being unranked for their October meeting. MSU’s misfortune can
rest solely on its offensive production. In all three losses, the Spartans have
failed to score over 16 points. Last week, it took double overtime for MSU to
reach 16 points in a loss to Iowa. For the Wolverines, it’s been the Denard
Robinson story on repeat; turnovers. In two losses this season, Michigan has
nine turnovers. Seven are credited to Robinson. MSU has won four straight
against the Wolverines, but number five may be the most challenging yet.
Averaging just 16.5 points a game against BCS conference teams this season won’t
cut it against Michigan, no matter how many turnovers Robinson has. Le’Veon
Bell continues to produce, but he can’t do it all. Without an opened offensive playbook,
Robinson and Michigan leave home with the win. Pick: Michigan 24 – Michigan State
14
(Game of the
week…)
#7 South
Carolina (6-1) @ #2 Florida (6-0)
Vs.
3:30 ET, CBS,
Sat. Oct. 20, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Remove the
names, colors and logos and these two are split images. They each give up 12
points a game defensively. Each brings in 378 yards a game offensively. The
Gamecocks give up 296 yards a game, the Gators, 297 yards. In terms of wins and
losses, their strength of schedule doesn’t even bend. Health may be the lone
area right now that these teams differ. The Gamecocks bring in six players
battling the flu, including leading wideout Bruce Ellington and midseason
All-American candidate, defensive end Jadaveon Clowney. The ‘Cocks may also
need to limit starting tailback Marcus Lattimore, who’s battling a hip injury. With
just four turnovers on the season, Florida has seldom beaten themselves. I liked South Carolina in the upset having
been 8-2 in their last 10 SEC away games. But that was before the flu took over.
It’s a lingering sickness ya’ know. Pick: Florida 20 – South Carolina 17
(Upset pick…1)
#4 Kansas State
(6-0) @ #13 West Virginia (5-1)
Vs. 
7:00 ET, FOX,
Sat. Oct. 20, Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV
It was only a
matter of time before the West Virginia offense went crazy watching its defense
from the sidelines. Last week was that time. A 14-7 game into the second
quarter, Texas Tech poured 35 unanswered points on the Mountaineers, totaling
676 total yards. If the Mountaineer defense, which ranks No. 112 in the country
in scoring defense, didn’t get the message last week, they’ll get it this week
from Collin Klein and the Wildcats. Kansas State, averaging 40.8 points a game,
showed last week they can also grind it out and win a physical game against Iowa
State on the road. A night game in Morgantown is a tough environment, however,
and the Mountaineers rank within the top 50 in rush defense, K-State’s
specialty. Kansas State will be more worn out than most expect and Geno Smith
and the playmaking bunch will be ready to attack after a sleeper last week.
West Virginia steals the headlines a week after making them the wrong way. Pick:
West Virginia 41 – Kansas State 37
(Upset pick…2)
#6 LSU (6-1) @ #18 Texas A&M (5-1)
Vs. 
12:00 ET, ESPN,
Sat. Oct. 20, Kyle Field, College Station, TX
The Tigers and
Aggies tell two very different stories while playing home and on the road. At
home, the Tigers offense seems to click, as they average 41 points a game. In
two away games, including one against 1-5 Auburn, the Tigers are averaging nine
points. The same can be said about the Aggies defense. Away from home, A&M
gives up an average of 29 points. At home, just over 14. Home or away, though,
the Aggies still have quarterback Johnny Manziel running the show. The freshman
leads the team in both passing and rushing and has 24 touchdowns to his credit.
LSU has a great defensive front, but Manziel has already faced a great defense
in Florida. The Aggies did lose, just 20-17, but it was Manziel’s first
collegiate game. At home with the 12th man behind him, Manziel moves his name atop
the Heisman list against one of the nation’s best defenses. Pick:
Texas A&M 24 – LSU 20
(Upset pick…3)
#20 Stanford
(4-2) @ California (3-4)
Vs. 
3:00 ET, FOX,
Sat. Oct. 20, Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
The 115th meeting
between the two, the Cardinal and Golden Bears have some tight knit battles
between them. The “Band is on the field!” ring a bell? I wouldn’t expect this season
to be much different, even with the Bears looking to just get to the .500 mark.
In two road games this season, Stanford has yet to score an offensive
touchdown. Apart from the Duke and Arizona games, Stanford hasn’t done a whole
lot of scoring in general. The Bears come in riding high off two straight
Pac-12 wins, including a43-17 upset over No. 25 UCLA. Look for the Bears to get
quarterback Zach Maynard in a grove early. Against UCLA, Maynard completed
25-of-30 passes for 295 yards and four scores. The Cardinal bring in the No.
106 ranked pass defense and should be worn down with two straight overtime
games and an emotional late game collapse against Washington before those. The
Cardinal won’t even see it coming. Pick: California 23 – Stanford 17
#14 Florida
State (6-1) @ Miami (FL) (4-3)
Vs. 
8:00 ET, ABC,
Sat. Oct. 20, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
There was a
time, when this game used to decide national championships. The only thing it decides
this season is recruiting rights. One of the biggest games of the season
respectively for recruiting Florida’s cream of the crop high school talent,
there’s a lot at stake on both sides. The Seminoles come in three touchdown
favorites, but 10 of the last 11 have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Miami quarterback Stephen Morris is listed as doubtful, leaving the reins to
6-foot-6 sophomore, Ryan Williams. The Noles bring in the No. 6 scoring offense
and No. 4 scoring defense and are looking to get things rolling again following
the NC State loss two weeks ago. With most of each team’s players having played
with each other or against one another before, it’s closer than the “experts”
think. Florida State still takes it with Morris on the sidelines. Pick:
Florida State 30 – Miami (FL) 24
#17 Texas Tech
(5-1) @ #23 TCU (5-1)
Vs. 
3:30 ET, ABC,
Sat. Oct. 20, Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
The Red Raiders
need to be careful here. Riding high off their West Virginia upset last week,
they’ll need to avoid the trap in Fort Worth. The Raiders are on game three of
a five game stretch against ranked Big 12 opponents. Quite frankly, the Horned
Frogs should be the easiest of the gauntlet. The offense has been great once
again for Tech, but it’s their defense, giving up just 16 points a game, which
has won them games this season. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has played
admirably with the new starting position, but Tech’s defense will be a far tougher
test than Baylor’s nationally ranked last place scoring defense. Seth Doege and
the Red Raiders continue their path of Big 12 destruction in a surprisingly low
scoring affair, however. Pick: Texas Tech 21 – TCU 14
BYU (4-3) @ #5 Notre Dame (6-0)
Vs. 
3:30 ET, NBC,
Sat. Oct. 20, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
The Cougars sit
in a fairly nice position. With Notre Dame sitting on their high horse in recent
weeks, having taken down No. 10 Michigan State, No. 18 Michigan, Miami (FL) and
No. 17 Stanford, not many, if anyone at all, expect the Cougars to do much
against the Irish. That’s a dangerous position to be in for Notre Dame. BYU has
dropped three of their last five and will be looking to throw the kitchen sink
and then the kitchen at the last ranked team they’ll face this year. Without
much of an offense, though, the Cougars throwing everything they’ve got at the
Irish looks a lot better on paper than it’ll look on game day. The Irish give
up just over 8 points a game. BYU, just over 13. It’s another defensive grind
it out game in South Bend. Manti Te’o moves further into Heisman discussion this
week. Pick: Notre Dame 22 – BYU 10
Virginia Tech
(4-3) @ #19 Clemson (5-1)
Vs. 
12:00
ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 20, Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
Already, the
winner of biggest underachiever of the 2012 season goes to the Hokies. Remarkably,
their ship hasn’t sunk just yet, though. Even with a loss to Atlantic division
member Clemson, the Hokies can still head to the ACC Championship
representing the Coastal. Having lost to two Big East teams helps. The problem
for Tech has been its running game, which before freshman J.C. Coleman’s 183
yards last week, seized to exist. They get their toughest test of the year so
far Saturday, which isn’t good news for a team with three losses already. The
Hokie defense has had trouble stopping much of anything so far and Tajh Boyd,
Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins will be an unsightly foe for the Hokies to
dance with in Death Valley. Struggles continue without the right personnel for
Va. Tech. Pick: Clemson 38 – Virginia Tech 28
North Carolina
(5-2) @ Duke (5-2)
Vs. 
7:00 ET, ESPNU,
Sat. Oct. 20, Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
One of the games
of the week is North Carolina vs. Duke? Wait, basketball, right? A usual snoozer
of a rivalry, the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils have played every year on the
gridiron since 1922. Why not, their only eight miles apart. North Carolina has
won eight straight, though, and 21 of the last 22 games against Duke. With the
Blue Devils on the verge of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since
1994, the rivalry looks to have a bit more bite this season. Quarterback Sean
Renfree and Duke are still looking for their first big win of the season,
however. UNC on the other hand, has taken down both Virginia Tech and Miami over
the last two weeks and the running game is humming. Gio Bernard has rushed for
439 yards in back-to-back weeks and UNC is 5-0 this season when he plays. He’s
playing Saturday too. Pick: North Carolina 34 – Duke 26
Last Week: 4-5 –
Overall: 21-14 – Upset Pick: 1-3
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