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November 13, 2010

College Football Report: Saturday Picks - Week 11

Michigan (6-3) vs. Purdue (4-5)

Vs.

12:00 ET Big Ten, Sat. Nov. 13, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN

Michigan: Quarterback Denard Robinson left last week’s game with a head injury but is expected back against the Boilermakers this week. Linebacker Jonas Mouton also left last week’s game and is listed as questionable against Purdue. It may not be as big of a loss as some think, however, based on how bad Michigan’s defense has been as a whole. PLAYER TO WATCH: Michael Shaw, Jr. RB

Purdue: Things have gone from bad to ugly for the Boilermakers quarterback position. Robert Marve was lost early in the year, then starter Rob Henry was lost against Ohio State and has not thrown a pass in three weeks. The Boilermakers are now on third string quarterback Sean Robinson as a starter against the Wolverines. PLAYER TO WATCH: Ryan Kerrigan, Sr. DE

The Pick: Michigan is clearly on a different ending path than last season’s team, which finished 5-7. A win against Purdue would push the Wolverines to 7-3, their best record under head coach Rich Rodriguez yet. Purdue is decimated by injuries and has failed to even hang with anyone in the Big Ten as of late, losing the last three weeks by a combined score of 127-23. Michigan 43 – Purdue 24

#19 Mississippi State (7-2) vs. #12 Alabama (7-2)

Vs.

7:15 PM ET, ESPN 2, Sat. Nov. 13, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs continue to get things done in the SEC and on the season playing good defense. Quarterback Chris Relf hasn’t turned the ball over since week three against LSU, which has also helped the team. Running back Vic Ballard has run well, becoming the offenses go-to-guy as of late. PLAYER TO WATCH: Chris White, Sr. MLB

Alabama: The offensive line continues to be the weakness of this year’s Tide team. The defense clearly has holes in the secondary as well, as we saw last week against LSU. The key for this team is stopping the big play. Big plays in both the S.C. and LSU games killed the Tide late. PLAYER TO WATCH: Mark Barron, Jr. SS

The Pick: Not many would have thought that the two of these teams would be matching up at this point in the season with 7-2 records. The Bulldogs, who beat Florida on the road, are still looking for a signature win on the year. The Tide needs this win badly. They don’t take losing two in a row, let alone three times in one year, in Tuscaloosa too kindly. Alabama 28 – Mississippi State 18

(Game of the week…)

#23 South Carolina (6-3) vs. #22 Florida (6-3)

Vs.

7:15 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Nov. 13, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

South Carolina: The Carolina offense seems to go as freshman running back Marcus Lattimore goes. We’ve seen the Gamecocks struggle with Lattimore out of the lineup and we’ve seen them have difficulty when he’s in but not producing. Quarterback Stephen Garcia still isn’t a true passer yet, and needs to rely on play action more than most. PLAYER TO WATCH: Alshon Jeffery, So. WR

Florida: The Gators looked to finally hit an offensive groove last week against Vanderbilt. But let’s be honest, it was only Vandy. Quarterback John Brantley has tossed just eight scores all season. The defense of the Gators will be heavily relied on here, especially the Gators secondary. PLAYER TO WATCH: Trey Burton, Fr. QB

The Pick: Surprisingly the Gators have been better on the road this season than in the Swamp. They have faced stiffer competition at home, but still, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium isn’t what it used to be. This one should be close based solely on the fact that the winner goes to the SEC Championship game. If the Gators can shut down Lattimore, the game is theirs for the taking. Florida 32 – South Carolina 21

#24 Kansas State (6-3) vs. #17 Missouri (7-2)

Vs.

12:30 PM ET, Sat. Nov. 13, Faurot Field, Columbia, MO

Kansas State: The Kansas State offense is surrounded by a bit of a large question mark at the quarterback position. Season starter Carson Coffman sat last week against Texas in place of backup Collin Klein. Klein rushed for 127 yards and two scores, but attempted just four passes the entire game. The starter Saturday against Missouri is still up in the air. PLAYER TO WATCH: Prizell Brown, Sr. DT

Missouri: The Tigers offense was quieted last week for the second straight game. After starting the first seven games with a 70 percent completion percentage, quarterback Blaine Gabbert has passed for two straight games of 42 and 40 percent. The offense is already one sided and can’t afford to lose the focus of Gabbert as well. PLAYER TO WATCH: Michael Egnew, Jr. TE

The Pick: Kansas State may be a good team. It’s really hard to tell. They really haven’t had a great win yet this season, Texas last week was kind of a cake walk. It’s hard to tell how good the backup Klein is as well after just four pass attempts. I like the Tigers, however, with whoever the Wildcats start at quarterback. They’ve been money at home this season. Missouri 30 – Kansas State 17

(Upset pick…)

#10 Oklahoma State (8-1) vs. Texas (4-5)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Nov. 13, Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Oklahoma State: There aren’t many quarterbacks playing better than Brandon Weeden right now. Having tossed nearly 3,000 passing yards and 26 scores on the season, he may be taking in some hardware to end the year. The defense, however, still remains vulnerable, the secondary especially, ranked No. 113 in the nation. PLAYER TO WATCH: Orie Lemon, Sr. MLB

Texas: There aren’t many teams playing poorer football right now. The thing I can’t figure out, however, is that this Longhorns team isn’t that much different from last years. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert has been a thorn in the side of his own team this season, at least when he passes the ball. The defense still brings along the nation’s No. 2 ranked pass defense. A part of the team that MUST show up Saturday. PLAYER TO WATCH: Aaron Williams, Jr. CB

The Pick: I thought it may have been impossible for the Longhorns to lose three straight earlier this season. There’s got to be some sort of college football rule against Texas losing four in a row. The key for the Longhorns is no turnovers, which means keeping Gilbert from throwing too much. In order for that to happen the Longhorns defense will have to be perfect. It feels like crazy talk but Texas with a bowl on the line and at home at night, it should feel like I can’t go wrong. Right? Texas 28 – Oklahoma State 27

Penn State (6-3) vs. #9 Ohio State (8-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN, Sat. Nov. 13, Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Penn State: The Nittany Lions are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Thanks much in part to the play of backup quarterback Matt McGloin. McGloin has over taken the starting job from freshman Robert Bolden and has worked wonders on the Penn State offense. Running back Evan Royster has also been on point in the last two games rushing for 150 and 134 yards. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jack Crawford, Jr. DE

Ohio State: The Bucks are welcoming the Nittany Lions to the horseshoe coming off of a bye week and this season, the Buckeyes may be one of the last teams you want to face off of a bye. Quarterback Terrell Pryor hasn’t messed around since the Wisconsin loss in games against Purdue and Minnesota. The offensive line, however, needs to start doing their part in protecting Pryor. PLAYER TO WATCH: Dane Sanzenbacher, Sr. WR

The Pick: The Bucks aren’t an indestructible team right now. Teams who’ve had success against the Buckeyes this year have gotten to Pryor in the backfield or at least made him move his feet in the pocket. The Nittany Lions don’t necessarily have the greatest pass rush around. Their leading sack man of the year, defensive tackle Devon Still, has just four. McGloin has been a spark to the Lions offense in two big games, but the Bucks are a different kind of good. Ohio State 31 – Penn State 17

(Give me a ticket to see…)

USC (6-3) vs. #18 Arizona (7-2)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Nov. 13, Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

USC: Three losses are about what was expected from the Trojans this season, anything more and it’s a disappointment. The offense is playing exceptional, having scored less than 31 points just once on the year. The defense, however, is vulnerable, giving up over 28 points an outing. PLAYER TO WATCH: Stanley Havili, Sr. FB

Arizona: The return of quarterback Nick Foles from a knee injury seemed rushed last week. Foles looked unsettled and out of rhythm in the pocket against Stanford. The good news is that the Wildcats and Foles are a week deeper in healing to full strength. The running game should be used heavily against a weak USC rush defense here. PLAYER TO WATCH: Brooks Reed, Sr. DE

The Pick: It feels like USC should be getting tired of being pushed around in conference play. This isn’t the same USC team of the past, though. They may be out for payback after last season’s loss at home to the Wildcats, but Arizona at home this season has been nearly perfect. The pass rush shows up with hometown ends Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed dominating the game. Arizona 36 – USC 31

Georgia (5-5) vs. #2 Auburn (10-0)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, CBS, Sat. Nov. 13, Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

Georgia: Georgia had its chance against Florida to save its season and still make it to the SEC Championship game. Now the Bulldogs are fighting for a bowl game. With Auburn and Georgia Tech left, a bowl isn’t a given in Athens. Wideout A.J. Green continues to have great success but the defense is flaky, having given up big chunks of yards in games. PLAYER TO WATCH: Justin Houston, Jr. OLB

Auburn: How are the Tigers going to respond surrounded by so much controversy and distraction surrounding the team’s best player in Cameron Newton? I actually don’t think the team will let the allegations affect them. I would expect nothing but the same Cam Newton we’ve seen all season long against the Bulldogs Saturday. PLAYER TO WATCH: Onterio McCalebb, So. RB

The Pick: The ‘Dogs are sure to be playing with a lot of fire in them. Missing bowl games in Georgia isn’t something that happens too often. The Tigers, who have rolled through the SEC perfect thus far, have done so in tight fashion. Four of the Tigers SEC games this season have been decided by a touchdown or less. I wouldn’t expect the high powered Georgia defense to be held down too much by a defense giving up 24 points a game. Tigers close. Auburn 35 – Georgia 31

#20 Virginia Tech (7-2) vs. North Carolina (6-3)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN, Sat. Nov. 13, Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

Virginia Tech: The Hokies are without a doubt the turnaround team of the season. A win against UNC Saturday will put them one game away from another ACC Championship game appearance. The Hokies let Georgia Tech hang around last week, but to be fare, the triple option is always a surprise. Team’s who’ve had good success against UNC this season have done so attacking a secondary decimated by injury and suspension. PLAYER TO WATCH: John Graves, Sr. DT

North Carolina: The Tar Heels pulled a fast one on me last week. I fully expected Florida State to take care of business on the road. Quarterback T.J. Yates, who’s been nearly perfect this season working without half his surrounding cast, tore through the FSU secondary for 400 plus yards. As much as Tech struggled last week against the run, however, expect more work on the ground here. PLAYER TO WATCH: Dwight Jones, Jr. WR

The Pick: Anything can happen late in the year in ACC play. Favorites in the ACC really mean nothing. Chapel Hill isn’t an easy place to play. The Hokies though, got their bell rung last week, and I think got the wakeup call they needed late in the year. A lot is riding on the Va. Tech secondary. The same goes for a UNC secondary that isn’t shy of giving up big plays. This one could be an aerial assault. Virginia Tech 29 – North Carolina 23

Last Week: 6-5 – Overall: 84-37 – Upset Pick: 6-3

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