It’s only Wednesday but the weekend picks are going out early this week. I’m heading north for the weekend. Enjoy the picks and previews; hopefully it’s the week I get back on the horse! Conference play is always rough, as I’ve written before. Have a good football weekend everyone!
(Thursday)
Georgia Tech (5-3) vs. #22 Virginia Tech (6-2)
Vs.
7:30 ET ESPN, Thur. Nov. 4, Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Georgia Tech: To this point, the Yellow Jackets are playing far behind last year’s Georgia Tech team that won the ACC. The offense has still been productive with Jonathan Nesbitt and Anthony Allen running but the biggest thing holding the team back has been the loss of wideout and first round draft pick Demaryus Thomas. Thomas gave the Jackets an escape in tough situations last year; something the offense has had nothing of this season. The leading receiver for the Jackets, Stephen Hill, has just 12 catches. PLAYER TO WATCH: Dominique Reese, Sr. ROV
Virginia Tech: Talk about a rebound team. The Hokies have been one of college football’s most impressive teams since their week two loss to FCS James Madison. They’ve won six straight games, including a road win at NC State. Since the week two loss, the Hokies have scored at least 41 points in five of their games. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has made the difference. Taylor has passed for over 1,600 yards and 15 scores, while rushing for 527 yards. PLAYER TO WATCH: Ryan Williams, So. RB
The Pick: I don’t think Lane Stadium on a Thursday night is a place to expect an upset. There’s no reason to dance around the pick. Virginia Tech’s defense hasn’t been dominating this season, but they’re still bringing in nearly seven tackles for loss a game and against an option attack like the Jackets run, I would expect more. As good as Taylor is playing for the Hokies, expect bigger games out of Williams and Darren Evans in the ground game. Virginia Tech 38 – Georgia Tech 20
(Friday)
Western Michigan (3-5) vs. Central Michigan (2-7)
Vs.
6:00 PM ET, ESPNU, Fri. Nov. 5, Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI
Western Michigan: It’s been a disappointing season in Kalamazoo. Three wins at this point are a bit less than the Broncos should have. The offense has been on point, though. Quarterback Alex Carder has passed for over 2,200 yards and 18 scores, while wideouts Jordan White and Juan Nunez rank within the top of the country in catches and yards. The problem has been a nonexistent rushing game. Carder nearly leads the team in rushing with 156 yards on the ground. PLAYER TO WATCH: Lewis Toler, rFr. CB
Central Michigan: How much can losing one player affect a team? If you’re Central Michigan and that player is quarterback Dan LeFevour, the affect can be the difference of a 12-2 season and a 2-7 season. The Chips have lost six in a row, including three straight MAC games. The offense has been horrendous at times, averaging just 22 points a game, down from 33 a year ago. Having the rivalry on the Chips home field may mean something, how much I don’t know. PLAYER TO WATCH: Cody Wilson, So. WR
The Pick: The two teams are nearly neck and neck in every NCAA statistical category, which is surprising by how bad the CMU offense has been this season. The Broncos and Chips are close in one major statistical category they wish they weren’t, though. WMU ranks No. 108 in the country in turnovers lost, while the Chips rank dead last, No. 120 in the nation. Whoever turns the ball over less will most likely take the game. Western Michigan 34 – Central Michigan 21
(Game of the week…)
#3 TCU (9-0) vs. #5 Utah (8-0)
Vs.
3:30 PM ET, CBS CSN, Sat. Nov. 6, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
TCU: Not a whole lot more can be said about the Horned Frogs this season than what has already been said. They’re one of the more impressive teams of this decade, yet fail to get the respect they deserve because of their Mountain West affiliation. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been phenomenal this season, both passing and rushing. The surprise, though, has been the play of standout running back Ed Wesley. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jeremy Kerley, Sr. WR/KR
Utah: The Utes have taken margin of victory to a whole new level this season. They’ve scored at least 56 points in four games this year and have an average margin of victory of over 31 points. The defense has been the difference so far for the Utes. Averaging over seven tackles for loss a game, Utah has been disruptive and rarely lets an opponent sustain a drive. PLAYER TO WATCH: Shaky Smithson, Sr. WR/KR
The Pick: Picking this one based on the numbers is about as easy as deciding the Miss America Pageant by the swimsuit contest. The teams are nearly on top of every statistical category in the country. This one’s not going to be won on the stat sheets; however, this one is going to come down to whoever wants a BCS bowl more. I like Utah at home a lot, Salt Lake is a tough place to play. But I think TCU has been a team on a mission this year after their sour loss to Boise State in last year’s BCS bowl game. TCU 27 – Utah 24
#21 Baylor (7-2) vs. #17 Oklahoma State (7-1)
Vs.
12:30 PM ET, Sat. Nov. 6, Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Baylor: How long can the Bears possibly continue this amazing run? The offense has been nearly perfect this season, with the return of quarterback Robert Griffin III back from injury. The Bears are averaging 490 yards of total offense a game and a shade over 34 points. Three straight wins in Big 12 play, including wins over Texas and Kansas State, have proved their success this season is no fluke. One area that will hurt them here, however, is having their No.1 corner on the bench in Chance Casey. PLAYER TO WATCH: Tevin Elliot, rFr. DE
OK State: The only offense more dominating in the Big 12 South this season than Baylor has been that of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The three headed combo of quarterback Brandon Weeden, running back Kendall Hunter and wideout Justin Blackmon is reunited this week. Blackmon sat on a one game suspension last week, but will return against Baylor. Good news facing a team down a man in the secondary. PLAYER TO WATCH: Orie Lemon, Sr. MLB
The Pick: There is a lot more than showing off one another’s powerful offenses on the line Saturday. Both of these teams still have a shot at the Big 12 South. The Cowboys were undefeated up until two weeks ago, falling to the high powered offense of Nebraska, but still managed 41 points against the black-shirt defense. Baylor’s losses this season have come against TCU and Texas Tech, two high scoring teams. Another near loss came to a Kansas State team that is no stranger to points on the board. They seem to struggle when they need to continuously score against teams and the Cowboys are sure to put at least 40 up. OK State 45 – Baylor 35
(Upset pick…)
#15 Arizona (7-1) vs. #13 Stanford (7-1)
Vs.
8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Nov. 6, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
Arizona: Quarterback Nick Foles has spent the last two games on the bench resting a knee injury sustained in the Washington State game. The offense, however, hasn’t skipped a beat. Matt Scott has led the offense to two straight wins over PAC-10 teams, including a 44-14 Washington blowout. The junior has over 600 yards of offense in two weeks, 136 of which came on the ground. In his three games with at least 20 passing attempts, Scott has completed an average of 72 percent of his passes. PLAYER TO WATCH: Ricky Elmore, Sr. DE
Stanford: The Cardinal continue to steamroll opponents, both on the road and at home. Their 41-0 win over Washington is a bit lopsided last week with Jake Locker spending the game on the bench. Surprisingly though, the Cardinal have played better on the road this season than at home. Still, with Andrew Luck backing Stanford, it hasn’t mattered how the rest of the team has played. The junior quarterback continues to be in the mix for the Heisman trophy. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jonathan Martin, So. OT
The Pick: Stanford is a great team this season. A one loss team to end the year, I don’t think so. The Cardinal still have a fairly uneasy PAC-10 schedule left to go, so there are chances for the Cardinal to fall. I don’t think it will be any other game, though, than this Saturday’s against Arizona, even with questions of whether Foles will start. The difference in the game I believe will be the pass rush and disruptive defense of the Wildcats. The Oregon defense was able to get pressure on Luck, forcing him into interceptions and turnovers late. The pass rush of the Wildcats is even better. Senior ends Elmore and Brooks Reed lead a Arizona team ranked No. 5 in the nation in sacks. Arizona 31 – Stanford 28
(Give me a ticket to see…)
#6 Alabama (7-1) vs. #10 LSU (7-1)
Vs.
3:30 PM ET, CBS, Sat. Nov. 6, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Alabama: This hasn’t been the same dominating 2009 National Champion Tide team. The offense, although still averaging 34 points a game, hasn’t been as powerful as it has potential to be. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram has failed to reach 100 yards rushing in each of his last four games and sophomore Trent Richardson actually leads the team in rushing. Quarterback Greg McElroy has had to rely on his arm far more than expected this season. PLAYER TO WATCH: Darius Hanks, Sr. WR
LSU: Let’s face it. The offense is ugly and incurable until a new quarterback comes around. It makes me sick when I think of the number of play makers the offense has compared to the number of touches they’ve gotten. The defense has and will carry the team the rest of the year, though. Defensive tackle Drake Nevis has been one of the nation’s best lineman but nobody seems to be talking about the interior beast. They will be after Saturday against an up and down offensive line. PLAYER TO WATCH: Steven Ridley, Jr. RB
The Pick: This game is always close. Throw out the rankings. Throw out the stats and the names. Alabama and Louisiana State are going to fight no matter what. Believe it or not, LSU has knocked out ‘Bama three out of the last five meetings, but lost the last two. The last time the Tide traveled to Tiger stadium the game went to overtime, with ‘Bama just pulling out with a win. I wouldn’t expect anything different here, even with a struggling LSU offense, they’ll find ways to score. Alabama 27– LSU 24 – 2OT
#18 Arkansas (6-2) vs. #19 South Carolina (6-2)
Vs.
7:00 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Nov. 6, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Arkansas: Things have been rough on quarterback Ryan Mallett this season. His outstanding wideout rotation has been bloodied and beaten all season long and Mallett himself had to endure a concussion just weeks ago. The bad news around his group of wideouts turned from ugly to dreadful with the news that leading receiver Greg Childs, the teams No.1 receiver, will miss the rest of the season. Joe Adams, the Razorbacks No. 2, remains questionable to return anytime soon. PLAYER TO WATCH: D.J. Williams, Sr. TE
South Carolina: When in the lineup, running back Marcus Lattimore has been a night and day difference for the Gamecocks offense. The freshman has had games of 182 yards, 93 yards and 184 yards in SEC play. His 93 yards came in the upset over No. 1 Alabama. He can also catch the ball, bringing in 133 receiving yards against Kentucky. As long as Lattimore is in the game, the Gamecocks will most likely be gaining positive yards. PLAYER TO WATCH: Devin Taylor, So. DE
The Pick: These two teams’ strengths and weaknesses stack up pretty well for one another. The Gamecocks rank No. 105 in the nation in pass defense and the Razorback offensive strength is without a doubt passing. Arkansas, however, ranks No. 78 in the nation in stopping the run. Not good news facing one of the better rushers in the country. The difference for the Gamecocks should be their pass rush, ranked No. 2 in the country in sacks. Not good news for a quarterback breaking in new favorite targets. South Carolina 34 – Arkansas 23
Minnesota (1-8) vs. #14 Michigan State (8-1)
Vs.
12:00 PM ET, Big Ten, Sat. Nov. 6, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Minnesota: Humiliation is nothing this Minnesota team isn’t familiar with this season, the 1-8 record should say enough. The offense has been able to hang with some teams, with quarterback Adam Weber throwing for over 2,100 yards and 17 scores, but it’s usually because the team is down. The Gophers are giving up over 34 points a game on defense and are ranked No. 92 in the nation in total defense. Numbers nobody can win with. PLAYER TO WATCH: Kyle Theret, Sr. S
Michigan State: Unlike Minnesota, the Spartans are dealing with embarrassment for the first time this week following a humiliating loss against Iowa. It should be interesting to see how the Spartans respond. Facing the nation’s No. 107 rush defense, I would expect they may respond quite well. If MSU wants to bring in an 11-1 season to end the year, they’re going to need to get running backs Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker back as the focal point of the offense. PLAYER TO WATCH: William Gholston, Fr. DE
The Pick: What we saw last week from Michigan State was the third straight week of quarterback Kirk Cousins being asked to carry the Spartan offense and dig them out of a hole. That’s not the type of player Cousins is. The junior needs a solid rushing game in order to work off of play action passes, his strong point. The Gophers have lost their last eight games and against what should be a more focused MSU defense and upset team in general, I wouldn’t expect any magic from the Gophers here. Michigan State 41 – Minnesota 21
Illinois (5-3) vs. Michigan (5-3)
Vs.
12:00 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Nov. 6, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Illinois: The record doesn’t really speak to how good a football team Illinois has been this season. Their three losses come to three teams with a combined three losses between them in Missouri, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Fighting Illini gave tough games to all three. The offense goes as quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase goes. In the Illini’s five wins, Scheelhaase has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. In the Illini’s three losses, the freshman threw one touchdown compared to seven interceptions. PLAYER TO WATCH: Martez Wilson, Jr. MLB
Michigan: You can’t really feel bad for the Michigan Wolverines this season because that would mean you’re feeling bad for their defense. You can, however, feel bad for Denard Robinson. The sophomore brought in over 380 yards of offense and scored all of Michigan’s touchdowns last week but his defense gave up 41 points. A quarterback can only do so much. If Michigan ‘s defense, which ranks No. 106 in the country in total defense, continues to give games away, the Wolverines will continue to fall .PLAYER TO WATCH: Jordan Kovacs, So. SS
The Pick: I don’t want to believe that the Wolverines are falling on the same slope they did last season. Before you know it, it will be game six of next season, sophomore Devin Gardiner will be in at quarterback for the Wolverines, trying to rebound from another 5-7 year. Maybe a little farfetched, I know, but the Wolverines are in jeopardy of losing their fourth straight, similar to last season. This Illinois team and defense is no joke either. It may be another nice day for Robinson, bad day for Michigan. Illinois 33 – Michigan 28
North Carolina (5-3) vs. #24 Florida State (6-2)
Vs.
3:30 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Nov. 6, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have proved you can win games with just half a team. That, however, may be starting to take a toll on the Heels; evident in UNC’s come from behind win against William & Mary last week. The biggest problem has been in the secondary where the Heels report seven cornerbacks on the injury/suspended list. It appears UNC may only have two available corners, apart from true freshman, against FSU. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jheranie Boyd, So. WR
Florida State: The Seminoles need to wash last week’s loss from their minds because an ACC title is still in reach. Quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to have an outstanding performance on the year, but that may change against a depleted UNC secondary Saturday. The disruptive defense of the Seminoles, ranked No. 1 in the nation in sacks, will be what gets the job done against the dangerous passing game of UNC. PLAYER TO WATCH: Brandon Jenkins, So. DE
The Pick: Florida State at Doak Campbell is always tough. Florida State with their first ACC title on the line should be especially tough. The Tar Heels are a fading team. The number of players UNC lost to start the season due to eligibility reasons and the injured players throughout the year are starting to catch up to the team in nearly every area. Ponder should be able to have a great game. Florida State 37 – North Carolina 17
Air Force (5-4) vs. Army (5-3)
Vs.
12:00 PM ET, Sat. Nov. 6, Michie Stadium, West Point, NY
Air Force: Since the loss of starting fullback Jared Tew, quarterback Tim Jefferson has stepped up his level of play. Not to say that Jefferson wasn’t having a good season at the time, but we’re starting to see Jefferson keep the ball more on option sweeps, which has turned into big gains for the offense. The defense has been stout the entire season, keeping the game close against Utah last week at home. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jon Davis, Jr. FS
Army: The Army offense is nothing much to look at. It’s nothing much at all, averaging just over 350 total yards a game. Quarterback Trent Steelman has passed for just 568 yards on the year with four touchdowns. The Black Knights gets things done on Saturday’s playing smart football and defense. The Knights have turned the ball over just eight times on the year, good for No. 6 in the nation in turnovers lost. PLAYER TO WATCH: Josh McNary, Sr. DE
The Pick: This is going to be a good game from the simple standpoint that these two are rivals, US Military rivals none the less. The Air Force offense gets almost all of their production done on the ground while the Army defenses specialty is stopping the run. The Knights are giving up just 117 yards on the ground a game. The Knights have played good football this season and been in every game they’ve played, even their losses, but the Falcons are a better overall team. Air Force 36 – Army 28
Last Week: 6-5 – Overall Season: 78-32 – Upset Pick: 5-3
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