There's no place like Saturday...


October 9, 2010

College Football Report: Saturday Picks - Week 6

(Game of the week…)

#17 Michigan State (5-0) vs. #18 Michigan (5-0)

Vs.

3:30 ET ABC, Sat. Oct. 9, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Michigan State: I don’t know that there is a more balanced offense in the nation than the Spartans. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has passed for better than 1,100 yards and the Spartan ground game has three capable running backs of rushing for 100 yards each week. Freshman running back Le’Veon Bell is still one of the nation’s best kept secrets, rushing for 471 yards and seven touchdowns so far. The defense is aggressive and specializes in stopping the run. Wisconsin’s John Clay saw his streak of 100 yard games come to an end last week. PLAYER TO WATCH: Larry Caper, So. RB

Michigan: There’s not a whole lot to say about the Michigan offense that hasn’t been said already this year. Denard Robinson leads on nearly everyone’s Heisman list as the Wolverines average better than 560 yards of offense a game. There shouldn’t be ever a worry if Michigan can hang with a team offensively this season. The worry should come when thinking about their defense. Giving up over 25 points a game, the Wolverines are young, slow and confused on defense this season. PLAYER TO WATCH: Mike Martin, Jr. DT

The Pick: Every year this one turns out to be one of the better Big Ten games. The Spartans and Wolverines are two of college football’s hottest teams right now, but one has to slip up Saturday. The Spartans have the ability to control the clock, bringing a three headed rushing attack at defenses wearing them down with long drives. That could be bad news for an already weak Michigan D with a Michigan offense that scores in seconds. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of rest time for that Big Blue defense. Michigan State 33 – Michigan 31

(Give me a ticket to see…)

#23 Florida State (4-1) vs. #13 Miami (FL) (3-1)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 9, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Florida State: The Seminoles identity this season is surprisingly defense, even with a quarterback like Christian Ponder leading the way. Led by linebacker Nigel Bradham, the Seminoles have got after the quarterback this season, ranking No. 1 in the nation is sacks and No. 2 in tackles for loss. If FSU wants to hang with a high scoring team like the Canes though, Ponder will need to find his group of unknown, yet capable wideouts. PLAYER TO WATCH: Taiwan Easterling, Jr. WR

Miami (FL): The Miami identity this season, like the Seminoles, has been defense so far. The ‘Canes and Noles have been going at a battle of “whatever you can do I can do better,” all season. Ranking No.1 in tackles for loss and No.2 in sacks, the teams swap in the categories. Miami’s offense has been impressive at times, led by quarterback Jacoy Harris, but it has also been frightening for fans watching Harris throw into multiple coverage. The running game will be heavily relied on, in order to set up the deep play action passing Miami loves. PLAYER TO WATCH: Andrew Smith, Jr. DE

The Pick: One of the best rivalries in the country, the Canes and Noles never disappoint in delivering a thrilling matchup. Both offenses are capable of sticking with one another here, but it is the defenses that will bring the most excitement. The ‘Canes bring the nation’s No. 2 rated pass efficiency defense and lead the nation in only having allowed one touchdown pass on the year. With an offense that may need to rely on Ponder to succeed, that could mean bad news for the Noles. After three straight away games, coming away with a 2-1 record in that stretch, Miami finally gets a home game and in sellout fashion. Miami 32 – Florida State 27

#12 LSU (5-0) vs. #14 Florida (4-1)

Vs.

7:30 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Oct. 9, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

LSU: It really can’t get any more ugly than it already is for the LSU Tigers offense. At least I hope not. Their last second win last weekend against Tennessee was about as lucky as hitting a jackpot on a busted slot machine. Somehow, the Tigers have decided to continue on with quarterback Jordan Jefferson. His 2-to-6 touchdown to interception ratio on the season and 30 percent completion percentage last week have been about as impressive as anyone on Jersey Shore’s resume. If the Tigers want any chance against the Gators, they’ll need to call on their defense once again. PLAYER TO WATCH: Drake Nevis, Sr. DT

Florida: To say that the Gators would like to redeem themselves from last week’s loss might be like saying Tiger Woods would like a whole do-over on the marriage thing. The Gators were caught trying to bring back fond memories of Tim Tebow jump passes last week, which resulted in an endzone interception and momentum changing play. The reason this Gators offense hasn’t been successful is because they haven’t moved on to the fact John Brantley is their quarterback now and haven’t been playing the once heralded quarterbacks game. But in their defense, though, Brantley hasn’t been playing Brantley’s game either. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jonathan Bostic, So. MLB

The Pick: Florida needs this game to sustain a greedy home fan base. The Gators have usually responded quite well from adversity, but this is a new UF team. If they aren’t able to outscore this LSU team, though, Urban Meyer may be in store for a few more health problems. The LSU defense has to be getting quite tired of being its backbone and at some point is going to snap. Trudging through the swamp this weekend sounds like an instance when that defense won’t be able to hold the weight of the team anymore. Florida 28 – LSU 16

(Upset Pick…)

#1 Alabama (5-0) vs. #19 South Carolina (3-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, CBS, Sat. Oct. 9, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

Alabama: The Tide absolutely crushed Florida last week. I wasn’t exactly calling for a close game, but what their defense did was impressive. But it was against a Florida team trying to bring back old memories on offense. Running Backs Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram continue to carry the offense, as quarterback Greg McElroy almost works as a mediator for the offense. Although they were impressive last week against the Gators, I still think there is some weakness in the Tide defense and a team has yet to expose it. PLAYER TO WATCH: Robert Lester, So. FS

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are flying a little under the radar right now. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for what they’re going to see against the Tide and a full weak to analyze the Florida game. With the ‘ole ball coach Steve Spurrier doing it, that’s an eternity. I’m interested to see how freshman running back Marcus Littimore handles the pressure of the big game. He’s carried the offense so far and he’ll need to turn up big against the Tide. Quarterback Stephen Garcia will need to only manage the game more than make big plays. PLAYER TO WATCH: Alshon Jeffery, So. WR

The Pick: I almost look at this game as a trap game for the Tide. They’re riding high after a big home win against the Gators. They’re heading into a hostile environment like South Carolina, in a nationally televised game. I also like that the Gamecocks have had two weeks to prepare, which is a must when facing a team as good as Alabama. If the defense can contain Richardson and Ingram, I don’t think McElroy can win it with his arm alone. I may be crazy, but I’m going with the Gamecocks last minute heroics. South Carolina 24 – Alabama 23

Oregon State (2-2) vs. #9 Arizona (4-0)

Vs.

6:00 PM ET, Versus, Sat. Oct. 9, Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

Oregon State: Not a lot has been made of this Beavers team this season. They failed in two of their toughest games of the year in road games against TCU and Boise State, so they’ll need to send a nice thank you card to the A.D. for scheduling the two best non-A.Q. teams in the country as away games. OSU still powers an explosive offense led by the Rodgers brothers. Jacquizz Rodgers brought in 145 yards on the ground against Arizona State last week, but quarterback Ryan Katz has yet to involve him in the passing game, something they need to do. PLAYE TO WATCH: Lance Mitchell, Jr. FS

Arizona: Still a darkhorse to take the PAC-10, the Wildcats have been playing outstanding football this season. This week’s game should be their first PAC-10 challenge though, as California is far from a PAC-10 contender this year. Quarterback Nick Foles is quietly one of the better passers in the country, but it has been their defense which has brought the most excitement. The Wildcats are giving up just 11 points a game and brought in six sacks against Iowa, a great offensive line. PLAYER TO WATCH: Nic Grigsby, Sr. RB

The Pick: I’d like it if the Beavers could climb out of the hole they’re in, but I wouldn’t expect it to be this week at Arizona. The Wildcats have been playing exceptionally well at home this season with an already 3-0 record and a slip up against a defense allowing 30 points a game shouldn’t be expected. As long as the Beavers continue to fail to open things up for the Rodgers brothers, this team will struggle offensively as well. Arizona 42 – Oregon State 26

#11 Arkansas (3-1) vs. Texas A&M (3-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 9, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX

Arkansas: Led by quarterback Ryan Mallett, this Arkansas team is capable of doing big things this season. We almost saw them walk away with a win against top ranked Alabama, before they began to get carless with the football. Mallett and the Razorbacks desperately want to redeem themselves after the second half collapse against the Tide and have had a week off to soak in their distress. The nation’s No.2 pass offense, the Razorbacks should be able to open things up against the nations No.67 pass defense. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jerico Nelson, Jr. OLB

Texas A&M: The worst enemy of the Aggies right now, is the Aggies. An outstanding offensive team, averaging nearly 40 points a game, the Aggies seemed to only hold them back in last week’s near win against Oklahoma State. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson can be spectacular at times and isn’t afraid to let his receivers make a play on a ball, which is where he gets into trouble. With two games of back-to-back four interception performances, Johnson will need to limit is arrant throws against a high scoring offense like the Razorbacks. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jeff Fuller, Jr. WR

The Pick: It’s reasonable to not expect a whole lot of defense in this one. Combined the offenses are averaging nearly 1,000 yards a game and 70 points. Whoever has the ball last may win this one. The game should be exiting from the standpoint that the two offenses also posses two of the better wide receiver units in the country. This one should be exciting in the fact that it’s a home game for Texas A&M in Cowboys Stadium owned by Jerry Jones, an Arkansas football grad. Jones always gets what he wants, except for enough Cowboys wins, but he’ll get a Razorback one Saturday. Arkansas 41 – Texas A&M 36

USC (4-1) vs. #16 Stanford (4-1)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 9, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA

USC: I have a feeling voters were waiting on when they could drop the Trojans from the AP poll as last week finally ended their slow decline in the poll, even with a 4-0 start. Washington barely got the best of the Trojans, though, and they still remain a good offensive team. Quarterback Matt Barkley has tossed 12 touchdowns and more than 1,100 yards this season, to his just four interceptions. What has carried the offense, however, is the play of running back Allen Bradford, who has averaged better than 10 yards a carry the last three games. His 500 yards on the ground and season 9.8 average lead the Trojans. PLAYER TO WATCH: Stanley Havili, Sr. FB

Stanford: The Cardinal played a good game last week against a great Oregon team. They failed to play four quarters of good football, though. Quarterback Andrew Luck, after not throwing an interception in his first three games, has tossed four in his last two games. His staple of receivers has taken a hit from the injury bug, but he may get wideouts Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu back this week. Both are listed as questionable on the team’s injury report. PLAYER TO WATCH: Coby Fleener, Jr. TE

The Pick: The Trojans will be looking for blood in this one. Last season the Cardinal walked into USC’s backyard and stomped the Trojans 55-21. Most of the Cardinal offense came from running back Toby Gerhart, though. Luck will need to play at the best of his abilities here in order to hang with a quarterback like Barkley. The home team has lost four straight in this series and the teams are nearly identical in almost every statistical category, except one. The Trojans rank No.116 in the nation in pass defense, while Stanford sits at No.19. The ability to stop the pass may be the difference here. Stanford 45 – USC 37

Pittsburgh (2-2) vs. Notre Dame (2-3)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, NBC, Sat. Oct. 9, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN

Pittsburgh: The Pitt Panthers were a once preseason top 15 team. They’ve done nothing but disappoint since the preseason polls, however. Running back Ray Graham turned in an impressive performance last week, rushing for 277 yards and three scores, which wasn’t apparently enough to overtake an injury battling Dion Lewis for the starting job. The Panthers will count on Graham and Lewis to rack up more yardage this week against a pours Notre Dame rush defense. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jarred Holley, So. FS

Notre Dame: Notre Dame finally broke their losing curse last week against Boston College. Losing four games in a row might have sent new head coach Brian Kelly into a frenzy this week if the Irish would have dropped the game out east. Quarterback Dayne Christ has been good this season, but he’s done just enough to keep his job and just scratch the surface of what a Kelly quarterback should be doing. The Irish needs to find a way to start getting wideout Malcolm Floyd more involved and against the No.92 rated pass defense it just might be the time to start. PLAYER TO WATCH: Manti Te’o, So. MLB

The Pick: For the sake of their reputation, the Irish can’t drop another home game this season, at least not until Utah heads to town in November. If the Irish fall to a team that may be in a hole deeper than them and at home nonetheless, pack in the Irish’s season. The passing game may turn up big numbers Saturday, but it will be upon the defense to stop a hot Pitt ground game if Kelly wants to walk away victorious here, or walk out of Notre Stadium at all. Notre Dame 27 – Pittsburgh 20

Clemson (2-2) vs. North Carolina (2-2)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN, Sat. Oct. 9, Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

Clemson: The Tigers have relied on the running back tandem of Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper to win them games so far this season. At times it has worked and at times, like last week against Miami, it has failed. The problem for Clemson to date has been the inability to throw the football, not because of Kyle Parker, but because of an inexperienced group of wideouts. The leading receiver on the Clemson offense is currently tight end Dwayne Allen with 11 catches. The leading wideout right now is true freshman DeAndre Hopkins with six catches. PLAYER TO WATCH: Andre Branch, Jr. DE

North Carolina: The Tar Heels are still battling having 10 players suspended. The defense gets a boast this week with the possible return of free safety Deunta Williams, who has served his four game suspension. Williams alone though may not be enough to slow down the Clemson rush attack. Quarterback T.J. Yates is having himself a decent season thus far throwing for nearly a 70 percent completion percentage with a 7-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He may be able to pick apart a vulnerable Clemson secondary. PLAYER TO WATCH: Quinton Coples, Jr. DE

The Pick: Both teams risk dropping to three losses on the season and risk suffering their second ACC loss. The teams come from different divisions of the ACC, but the loss could be more impactful from the Clemson side. The Tigers still have a chance to win their weaker division and win could do wonders to their confidence level. The rushing game of Ellington and Harper will be the difference in this one and should give the Tigers the slight advantage. This will be an instance when the two backs get the Tigers a win on talent alone. Clemson 31 – North Carolina 24

Tennessee (2-3) vs. Georgia (1-4)

Vs.

12:21 PM ET, ESPN3, Sat. Oct. 9, Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA

Tennessee: Words can’t describe the anger head coach Derrick Dooley had following Tennessee’s loss to LSU last week. Actions were all Dooley were all he needed. Quarterback Matt Sims has delivered less than what was advertised to start the year, which wasn’t much. Now the Vol’s might not be able to keep Sims very clean Saturday with three starting offensive linemen expected to miss the Georgia game. Expect a whole lot of action out of the punting game from Tennessee in this one. PLAYER TO WATCH: Chad Cunningham, Sr. P

Georgia: Words can’t describe the gut turning feeling head coach Mark Richt had to be experiencing following running back Caleb King’s fumble late in the Colorado game. The look on Richt’s face following a last second field goal by Colorado to win it gave pretty good indication to the dissatisfaction he was experiencing. The return of wideout A.J. Green will do wonders for the Georgia offense. Green turned in seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns in his only game of the season last week. PLAYER TO WATCH: Akeem Dent, Sr. MLB

The Pick: Someone’s going to win this one. I think? Both coaches are off to starts they clearly didn’t see coming heading into the season, although while Dooley should have expected it, Richt and Georgia’s start is quite shocking. The Bulldogs will need to pull in a win against an SEC team that may be even worse than them and Richt may need to win to keep fans from talking about the security of his job. Georgia 23 – Tennessee 10

Last Week: 12-1 – Season: 48-10

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All writing and views subject to © Drew P. Kochanny, All Rights Reserved. Photo's credited to rights owner.