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October 30, 2010

College Football Report: Saturday Picks - Week 9

#5 Michigan State (8-0) vs. #18 Iowa (5-2)

Vs.

3:3 0 ET ABC/ESPN, Sat. Oct. 30, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

Michigan State: The Michigan State offensive line has taken a lot of heat the last two weeks in slow starts by the Spartans, and rightfully so. MSU is averaging just 99 yards on the ground in its last two games, over a 100 yard drop off from the start of the season. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been spectacular when called upon, but MSU doesn’t want to only rely on their quarterback, especially against a talented team like Iowa. PLAYER TO WATCH: Eric Gordon, Sr. OLB

Iowa: Known for their toughness, the Hawkeyes will take the field Saturday with a hole at one of its most important positions. Three starting linebackers, Jeff Tarpinian, Jeremiha Hunter and Troy Johnson, are expected to miss the game. Tarpinian and Hunter are both out, while Johnson is listed as questionable. Outside linebacker Tyler Nielson will resume as a starter, but two freshmen, James Morris and Shane DiBona are expected to start. PLAYER TO WATCH: Christian Ballard, Sr. DT

The Pick: I should be able to tell who is going to win the game by watching the offensive and defensive lines clash on the Spartans first offensive possession. The defensive line for the Hawkeyes is phenomenal, placing a tremendous amount of pressure on the Spartans offensive line to produce like they did against Wisconsin. I liked the Hawkeyes before I saw the injury report. Two new freshman starters at linebacker are enough for me to turn the other cheek in such a close game. Michigan State 20 – Iowa 18

(Game of the week…)

#6 Missouri (7-0) vs. #14 Nebraska (6-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN, Sat. Oct. 30, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE

Missouri: The Tigers made me put my foot in my mouth last week after their win over the Sooners. I didn’t think there was any possible way they could pull off the No. 1 upset. I said, however, I wasn’t a believer and I’m still not. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert operates the offense like a fifth year senior and defense has brought in 17 takeaways but there still feels like there’s something missing. That missing piece will get exposed this week in Lincoln. PLAYER TO WATCH: Aldon Smith, So. DE

Nebraska: Quarterback Taylor Martinez was back to him game-breaking self last week, following a benching during the Texas game. Martinez not only ran for 112 yards but threw for 300+ with five touchdowns against Oklahoma State. The defense had holes in the secondary surprisingly, but the Cowboys offense is one of the nation’s best. Nebraska, however, seems to be able to score at will this season. PLAYER TO WATCH: Brandon Kinnie, Jr. WR

The Pick: I’ll admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong about the Tigers last week. They are a sound offensive and defensive team and very well coached. Unfortunately the Huskers have been one of the nation’s best offensive and defensive team this year. In a head-to-head matchup I think the Huskers would have beaten the Sooners and I think the Huskers have more than enough to take down Missouri. Nebraska 43 – Missouri 31

#2 Oregon (7-0) vs. USC (5-2)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 30, Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Oregon: The Ducks have been on a war path this season, averaging 55 points offensively while holding teams to just over 15 points. It may be scary to think what the Ducks are capable of now with more than a week to prepare for their trip to the coliseum. My guess is a whole lot of new ways to get running back LaMichael James the ball in space. PLAYER TO WATCH: DJ Davis, Sr. WR

USC: The Trojans have been lost in the shuffle of the Oregon spotlight this season but still poses an offense capable of hanging with nearly everyone in the country. The Trojans defense however, has been its weak area. Keeping up with the Oregon offense is opposing team’s biggest struggle to date. If the offense can keep Oregon off the first with long drives USC may have a chance. PLAYER TO WATCH: Matt Barkley, So. QB

The Pick: The Trojans put some pretty big beatings on the Ducks while they were on their National Championship runs in the middle of the decade. Oregon may be out for a bit of payback, as if the 47-20 beating the Ducks handed the men of Troy last year wasn’t enough. USC needs to start fast and keep an up-beat tempo throughout the game. Once a team loses its fast pace, the Ducks drop points in literally minutes. Until I actually see a team slow down the offense I can’t call for anyone other than the Ducks to win. Oregon 53 – USC 30

#1Auburn (8-0) vs. Mississippi (3-4)

Vs.

6:00 PM ET, ESPN2, Sat. Oct. 30, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

Auburn: Topping his performance last week for quarterback Cameron Newton will be tough to do the rest of the season. Despite his 217 yards on the ground last week, Newton has been a throw first quarterback this season and has a 172.08 QB rating this season when he does throw. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of rushing yards against the Rebels, unless things break down and he absolutely needs to take off. PLAYER TO WATCH: Josh Bynes, Sr. OLB

Ole Miss: The Rebels have been out of the spotlight more so this season than more recent Houston Nutt teams. The offense, led by ex-Duck Jeremiah Masoli, has been able to score this season, averaging 31 a game. The Rebels defense, however, hasn’t been able to slow down anyone. PLAYER TO WATCH: Rodney Scott, So. RB

The Pick: Can another No. 1 really fall four weeks in a row? I don’t think so and neither should anyone outside of Oxford Mississippi. Newton and Masoli is a really good quarterback matchup, and the Tigers defense has had a tough time slowing down even average quarterbacks this season. Expecting a team’s defense that gave up 49 points to Jacksonville State to stop the most dominating player in the country is a different story, though. Auburn 35 – Mississippi 23

(Upset pick…)

#13 Stanford (6-1) vs. Washington (3-4)

Vs.

7:00 PM ET, Versus, Sat. Oct. 30, Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA

Stanford: The Cardinal has been a dominating offensive team this season, led by quarterback Andrew Luck. The last two weeks, however, the team has lost its grip on games late. They squeaked by the Trojans on a late field goal 37-35 then last week gave up 28 points to Washington State. Luck will get his points and yards, but the defense needs to hold a powerful Husky offense to a minimum the entire game. PLAYER TO WATCH: Chris Owusu, Jr. WR

Washington: The Huskies have carried on the trend of an impressive then disappointing team this season. Winning every other game, Quarterback Jake Locker has been one of the nation’s most up and down players from week to week, something he’ll need to change if he’s expecting No. 1 draft pick money. Although, there isn’t a whole lot Locker can do if his defense plays as poorly as they did last week against Arizona. PLAYER TO WATCH: Chris Polk, So. RB

The Pick: Expect a lot of fireworks from both quarterbacks here. Stanford’s Luck and Washington’s Locker are considered the two highest draft eligible quarterback prospects heading into the 2011 NFL Draft, so neither will be willing to toss the head-to-head matchup away especially with 16 NFL teams scouts being represented in Seattle. The Huskies have been playing a different kind of football at home this season, apart from the Nebraska game. If Locker gets any such help from his defense, Washington should be able to come out on the better side of this matchup. Their due for a win anyways. Washington 37 – Stanford 34

Michigan (5-2) vs. Penn State (4-3)

Vs.

8:00 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Oct. 30, Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Michigan: The ghosts of football recent past are beginning to haunt the Wolverines. It was at the same point last season Michigan began their downward spiral. There is however, one reason many Michigan fans shouldn’t worry. That reason is Denard Robinson. Despite the two losses and being knocked from the Iowa game, Robinson still leads the nation in rushing yards a game (156) and still averages 345 total offensive yards. PLAYER TO WATCH: Roy Roundtree, So. WR

Penn State: Things have been pretty ugly at times for the Penn State offense. True freshman quarterback Robert Bolden has been paying just as you would expect a freshman to thrust into Big Ten play. Bolden was knocked from the Nittany Lions last game with a concussion, however, and although cleared to play, reports are that sophomore Matt McGloin will make the start. Whoever plays for the Lions may not need to do much more than handing the ball off to running back Evan Royster. PLAYER TO WATCH: Chris Colasanti, Sr. MLB

The Pick: This may be the game we finally see the old Denard Robinson again. The Lions defense is good, but ranked No. 52 against the run, this team hasn’t seen a player like Denard Robinson yet this or any other season. Penn State plays tough at home in night games but Michigan is trying to beat away last year’s win mark of five games. Michigan 38 – Penn State 26

(Give me a ticket to see…)

#25 Baylor (6-2) vs. Texas (4-3)

Vs.

7:00 PM ET, FSN, Sat. Oct. 30, Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Baylor: Don’t rub your eyes or try to shake out the webs in your head, the Baylor Bears are ranked. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is playing as the best quarterback in Texas right now, with heavy competition. Griffin has led the Bears offense to over 500 yards of total offense a game and a win over No.22 ranked Kansas State last week. PLAYER TO WATCH: Jay Finley, Sr. RB

Texas: Texas’ record may want to make you take a closer look more so than a ranking in front of Baylor. The Longhorns offense has been ugly apart from the Nebraska game. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert has shown his youth this season but will need to pick up the slack of a young offense if Texas doesn’t want to slip any farther down. PLAYER TO WATCH: Vondrell McGee, Sr. RB

The Pick: The Bears are riding high after becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1994 last week. The Longhorn’s, however, can’t afford to lose any more games this season. That may be inevitable at this point with the talent they have left down the road but they especially can’t afford to lose to instate Baylor. We saw how the Longhorns responded from the loss to Oklahoma, beating a very talented Nebraska team. They should be just as upset at home again. Texas 30 – Baylor 28

#8 Utah (7-0) vs. Air Force (5-3)

Vs.

7:30 PM ET, Sat. Oct. 30, Falcon Stadium, United States AF ACA, CO

Utah: You’ll be hard pressed at finding another team as hot as Utah right now. The Utes have scored 56 or more points this season four times and held opponents to six points or less in three of those games. The offense is balanced to the point where quarterbacks Jordan Wynn and Terrance Cain have both contributed in games this season. They’ve faced a weak Mountain West schedule so far and will get a test from the Falcons. PLAYER TO WATCH: Shaky Smithson, Sr. WR

Air Force: The Falcons are a good team this season. Their three losses, however, have come to really good programs. I want to believe the Falcons have an upset in them this season though. They came close against Oklahoma and kept the first half close against TCU, can they contain the Utes in their own backyard? PLAYER TO WATCH: Reggie Rembert, Sr. CB

The Pick: The academy can be an intimidating place for any team to play. Whenever these teams play the games always seem like they’ve gone down to the wire. Last year’s meeting between the two went to overtime with the Utes coming out on top. I’d like to pick the Falcons here, but they’ve burned me twice already in upset picks this season. Utah 37 – Air Force 23

Florida (4-3) vs. Georgia (4-4)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, CBS, Sat. Oct. 30, Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Florida: The Gators have lost three straight games and are in danger of a fourth straight loss, something unspeakable around Gainesville. The Gators have owned the Bulldogs the last five years, including huge marginal wins in the last two years. The offense is terrible, however, the Gators are heading off of a bye week and Urban Meyer should have his team prepared in a big game. PLAYER TO WATCH: Janoris Jenkins, Jr. CB

Georgia: After a terrible start on the season the Bulldogs have railed off three straight SEC wins. This game against the Gators, however, is the ‘Dogs most important yet. If they want a chance to make it to the SEC title game, it has to start with a win over the Gators. Wideout AJ Green has brought a new dynamic to the offense since his return from a suspension, opening the field for other players. PLAYER TO WATCH: Justin Houston, Jr. OLB

The Pick: This may be one the toughest game of the week to pick. Neither team can afford a loss in Jacksonville. The Gators more so than the Bulldogs need a win because four straight losses in a Gators uniform looks really ugly. It is possible, however. I’m interested to see how the team responds and how prepared the coaches have the players coming off of a bye week. The Bulldogs are favored but the Gators are fuming right now. Florida 27 – Georgia 26

Last Week: 7-5 – Overall Season: 72-27 – Upset Pick: 5-2

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All writing and views subject to © Drew P. Kochanny, All Rights Reserved. Photo's credited to rights owner.