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October 16, 2010

College Football Report: Saturday Picks - Week 7

(Give me a ticket to see…)

Texas (3-2) vs. #5 Nebraska (5-0)

Vs.

3:30 ET ABC/ESPN, Sat. Oct. 16, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE

Texas: The Longhorns need to diagnose their problem and do it fast. The difficulty in doing so this season is that it’s not just one area of weakness, the entire team seems to be having an off year. The problem I’ve noticed is a lack of leadership and youth spread everywhere. If the Longhorns want any chance against a dominating Nebraska team, quarterback Garrett Gilbert will need to stop playing scared and their veteran group of defensive backs will need to step up. PLAYER TO WATCH: Keenan Robinson, Jr. OLB

Nebraska: This is a Nebraska team that has a defense to stop anyone and a rush offense to control any defense. Quarterback Taylor Martinez is special. He’s leading an offense that has taken a 360 degree turn from last seasons, averaging over 330 rush yards a game. It’s Nebraska’s defense that will need to be stellar against Texas, however. Last season Ndamukong Suh dominated the Texas offensive line. Defensive tackle Jarred Crick needs to do the same this year, to unsettle Gilbert in the pocket. PLAYER TO WATCH: Lavonte David, Jr. OLB

The Pick: Last year’s conference championship game between the Huskers and Longhorns was one of the best games of the year. This year, these are entirely different teams. A good thing for Nebraska, who struggled on offense last season. A bad thing for Texas. In his tenure at Texas, head coach Mack Brown has lost three games in a row just once in his career. In 1999 the Longhorns finished 9-5, ending the season with a three game losing streak. Nebraska was one of their defeats in that streak. Time to chalk up another streak. Nebraska 36 – Texas 23

(Game of the week…)

#12 Arkansas (4-1) vs. #7 Auburn (6-0)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, CBS, Sat. Oct. 16, Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

Arkansas: Arkansas fans have come to expect a strong start from Mallett and the Razorbacks this season. A strong second half is something fans are still waiting on. Games against Georgia and Texas A&M were nearly lost in the second half. Against Alabama, the game was lost by the Razorbacks in the second half. If Arkansas wants to be a contender in the SEC, they’ll need to finish games. PLAYER TO WATCH: Anthony Leon, Sr. FS

Auburn: The Tigers have been one of college football’s most exciting teams to watch in the 2010 season. Much of that can be credited to the play of their Heisman contender at quarterback in Cameron Newton. Newton has given hope to an Auburn program that has needed a boost over the past few years. Their defense has been disruptive, led by defensive tackle Nick Fairley, forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. PLAYER TO WATCH: Josh Bynes, Sr. OLB

The Pick: The Razorbacks have been playing a kind of football lately that is tough to watch. A team that starts hot and ends cold can give any fan a headache. The Tigers, however, have been king of the close game this season. Game winning field goals propelled the Tigers to wins against Clemson and Kentucky, while Auburn also came back to take a victory from South Carolina. This one should be a close one as well. The upper hand goes to Newton and the Tigers. Auburn 34 – Arkansas 31

(Upset pick…)

#1 Ohio State (6-0) vs. #18 Wisconsin (5-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC, Sat. Oct. 16, Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI

Ohio State: The Buckeyes seem to be playing like the same ole Buckeyes. Blowout early season teams, i.e. Ohio and Marshall. Go neck and neck with a ranked team in their backyard, i.e. Miami (FL). Struggle figuring out their Big Ten opener, i.e. Illinois. Then dominate a Big Ten team, i.e. Indiana. They’ve also dropped one conference game each of the last three years. Perhaps Wisconsin 2010? PLAYER TO WATCH: Dane Sanzenbacher, Sr. WR

Wisconsin: The Badgers have been playing their game this year as well: Pound the ball on the ground and dominate the defensive line of scrimmage. Running back John Clay is off to another impressive start, but it has been the play of freshman running back James White that has knocked defenses backwards this season. Clay adds power to the ground game, while White comes in as a change of pace player keeping defenses honest, while also keeping the ball on the ground. PLAYER TO WATCH: Gabe Carimi, Sr. OT

The Pick: This one feels awfully similar to last week’s upset pick. Alabama was heading to a hostile environment with the No. 1 ranking hanging over their heads like a cracked piñata ready to explode. As far as hostile environments go, Camp Randall Stadium at night is about as hostile as it can get in college football. Wisconsin is still looking for a team to punish this season with their rushing game and they may have no better chance than here. John Clay has a huge day, looking to redeem himself from Michigan State. Wisconsin 27 – Ohio State 20

Illinois (3-2) vs. #13 Michigan State (6-0)

Vs.

12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network, Sat. Oct. 16, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Illinois: The Fighting Illini have been playing good football this season. Their win over Penn State was dominating. Junior running back Mikel Leshoure has been one of the most impressive players on the field in every game, even rushing for 80 yards against the Buckeyes. The Illini defense will need to play well against the Spartans, however. Ranked No. 20 in total defense, Illinois has been doing just that lately. PLAYER TO WATCH: Martez Wilson, Jr. OLB

Michigan State: Not many predicted the Spartans 6-0 start to the season. Their ground game has been dominant and their defense proved last week no player is too good to shut down. In consecutive weeks the Spartan defense held two of the Big Ten’s best players to modest games, by their account at least. Wisconsin’s John Clay found his 100 yard game streak bust and Denard Robinson was held to below 100 yards and threw three interceptions. It’s time to start believing in the Spartans. PLAYER TO WATCH: Joel Foreman, Jr. OG

The Pick: This one almost feels like a trap game for the Spartans. Just when college football analysis start believing in MSU, a team on the verge of a big win like Illinois comes to town. As long as the Spartans have their ground game going, though, they will be one of the toughest teams around to slow down. Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker should each get 20+ carries here as the Spartans handle business in their backyard. Michigan State 28 – Illinois 13

#15 Iowa (4-1) vs. Michigan (5-1)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN, Sat. Oct. 16, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Iowa: The Hawkeyes have been hiding since their forgetful trip to the desert. Before last week’s bye, the Hawkeyes brought in an impressive win against Penn State but its clear they aren’t the Nittany Lions of old. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi continues to have a stellar season and should come up big against a weak Michigan defense. PLAYER TO WATCH: Broderick Binns, Jr. DE

Michigan: Either the Wolverines had a slip up last week against rival Michigan State, or these are the Wolverines of the recent past. Hopefully, this Michigan team can compile a better record than 1-7 in the Big Ten this year and Denard Robinson should be the difference. If Robinson struggled last week, he may be in for an even bigger headache this week against one of the nation’s best defensive lines. Michigan group of young and talented wideouts will need to help out their quarterback today. PLAYER TO WATCH: Mike Martin, Jr. DT

The Pick: The Wolverines played the Hawkeyes tough last season, in Iowa. Something tells me that last week’s game against the Spartans wasn’t the real Robinson making mistakes. I think he’s better than he played last week, but against such a dominating defense like Iowa, Robinson will need to be just as special as he was early in the season if the Wolverines want to pull out a win. Michigan defense will need to turn in just enough to stop the big plays through the air. Michigan 35 – Iowa 27

#10 South Carolina (4-1) vs. Kentucky (3-3)

Vs.

6:00 PM ET, ESPN 2, Sat. Oct. 16, Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY

South Carolina: One of two things could happen here for the Gamecocks. One, they could fold following a tremendous win against the No. 1 ranked team in the country. Or two, the Gamecocks could play the rest of the season like they did against Alabama. I’m actually taking somewhere in between there. The key for South Carolina will be getting running back Marcus Lattimore the ball. Holding the ball and winning the clock game against Kentucky’s powerful offense is important. PLAYER TO WATCH: Brian Maddox, Sr. RB

Kentucky: The Kentucky offense takes a bit of a hit this week with starting running back Derrick Locke being sidelined. Luckily, wideout Randall Cobb is playing some of the best football in the country right now. Cobb scored three offensive touchdowns last week, passing, rushing and receiving. The Wildcats will get the ball to Cobb often. PLAYER TO WATCH: DeQuin Evans, Sr. DE

The Pick: I liked Kentucky here earlier in the week. Then I did some thinking. The Gamecocks played absolutely dominating football against Alabama and can beat anyone in the country if they continue to play like they can. The Carolina defense will be called upon to stop a team that nearly came back to beat Auburn last week and will need to play a full game. South Carolina 30 – Kentucky 28

California (3-2) vs. USC (4-2)

Vs.

3:30 PM ET, Sat. Oct. 16, Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

California: The Golden Bears seemed to have things figured out last week. Following two losses to ranked opponents Cal welcomed UCLA for a 35-7 beat down. Running back Shane Vereen rushed for 151 yards last week and may be picking up bigger chunks of yards against the Trojans defense this week. Can the Cal defensive backfield slow down Barkley and the Trojans pass attack though, that’s the question of the day. PLAYER TO WATCH: Keenan Allen, Fr. WR

USC: Two straight losses have come the Trojans way. By last second field goals non-the less. Aside from last week against Stanford, the Trojans have been running the ball very effectively this season. Running backs Allen Bradford and Marc Tyler both have impressive games this season. The Trojan defense, though, hasn’t been able to stop anything lately and will be under a great amount of pressure to slow Vereen. PLAYER TO WATCH: Ronald Johnson, Sr. WR

The Pick: This was one of the hardest games to pick this week. The Trojans have dropped two conference games in a row, while Cal nearly pulled the upset over Arizona then rolled over UCLA. Defense will play the biggest role here. As bad as the Trojans are playing lately on the defensive side of the ball, its likely even Cal quarterback Kevin Riley will be able to find open lanes down field. California 38 – USC 34

Oregon State (3-2) vs. Washington (2-3)

Vs.

10:15 PM ET, ESPN, Sat. Oct. 16, Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA

Oregon State: It seems every year the Beavers drop a few games early before going on a PAC-10 win streak. The Beavers of fully equipped to begin another streak this year, but the loss of wideout James Rodgers will certainty hurt. It may just push his brother Quizz into a bigger role of the offense. Regardless, though, a deep threat down the field is lost. PLAYER TO WATCH: Markus Wheaton, So. WR

Washington: The Huskies have put together quite the up and down season. Each of their two wins was followed by losses. They beat a heavily favored USC team on the road, but then last week lost to Arizona State at home. Quarterback Jake Locker needs to play more consistent, while the defense needs to get opposing offenses into more third and long situations. First downs have come too easily for Husky opponents. PLAYER TO WATCH: Mason Foster, Sr. OLB

The Pick: Although the Beavers may feel it’s time to streak through the PAC-10, it’s time for Washington to bring in a win since they lost last week. Oregon State has beaten Washington each of the past five years but the Huskies have proven they can play passionate football at home. Something tells me Locker will take over this game. Washington 29 – Oregon State 24

#21 Missouri (5-0) vs. Texas A&M (3-2)

Vs.

12:00 PM ET, Sat. Oct. 16, Kyle Field, College Station, TX

Missouri: The Tigers are actually playing better defense this season than their potent offense. Giving up just an average of 11 points a game, the Tigers held Colorado scoreless last week. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert hasn’t put up the numbers expected of him before the season, but he’s still having an impressive season. The problem for Missouri has been their nonexistent running game. I don’t know if they can beat A&M as a one dimensional offense. PLAYER TO WATCH: Michael Egnew, Jr. TE

Texas A&M: After starting the season 3-0, the Aggies have now dropped their last two. Granted they were against Oklahoma State and Arkansas. Quarterback Jarrod Johnson is a special player but he needs to limit his mistakes. Johnson has thrown nine interceptions in the last three games. Getting wideout Jeff Fuller involved early I think will be important for A&M. Fuller can be hard to contain when he’s on. PLAYER TO WATCH: Christian Michael, So. RB

The Pick: The key here is turnovers. If Missouri can force Johnson into the same mistakes he’s been making lately, the Tigers should come away with the win. Unfortunately I don’t think Johnson will make the same mistakes he’s been making, especially at Kyle Field. Last week’s home game was in Cowboys Stadium, this week’s goes back to College Station. I think that alone will be enough to pull off the upset. Texas A&M 40 – Missouri 31

Last Week: 9-4 – Overall Season: 59-15 – Upset Pick: 4-1

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