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October 21, 2010

College Football Report - Saturday Storylines

BCS conference games are a dogfight

In college football, anything goes when conference play begins. Picking winners in college games becomes as easy as spotting a one legged dancer on Broadway. Picking the favoirte isn't always your best bet anymore. Upsets and spread beaters whip through conference play regularly, finding the right ones, however, can seem impossible.

Take last week for instance. Eight teams ranked within the Top 25 lost, all of which were conference matchups. How many laid money on Kentucky to beat a upstart South Carolina team, or Texas to pull off the upset in Lincoln?

Of the 65 BCS conference programs from the 2009 season, 40 teams lost four or more conference games. Of those 40, nearly half – 19 – were teams that played in a bowl game.

Four teams – Alabama, Florida, Texas and Cincinnati – made it through conference play undefeated. That means teams have a six percent chance of making it through their conference schedule without a scratch to the record, compared to the 62 percent who lose four or more times in conference play.

Last year seemed to be a rarity when it comes to teams trekking through their conferences unscratched, however. Take 2008 and 2007 for examples. In 2008 only one team, Alabama made it through with a clean slate. In 2007, no team finished undefeated in conference play.

This year is turning out to be no different. The gap between the undefeated and the teams looking for upsets is shrinking. Since week five, when teams began to play regular conference games each week, 40 out of the 70 BCS conference games played had underdogs beat or push the spread. That’s 58 percent of the time. During week six of conference play, underdogs beat the spread 70 percent of the time.

Conference play is just starting to heat up, though. Some teams have only played one conference game in the case of many. Thirteen teams remain undefeated in BCS conference play, compared to the five teams that remain undefeated on the season. The glory days of raking in money on college football Saturdays, week’s one through four, have come to an end.

Why are BCS programs records so close, though, in conference play? For one, teams are used to playing one another year after year. Players and coaches pick up tendencies of each other and expose them in the games. Assistant coaches turned head coaches spread throughout the conference, where the student takes on his once teacher. We’ve seen it already this year, past assistant coaches taking down their past programs.

Last week former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen, now the head coach of Mississippi State, returned to his old program only to take down his highly favored past boss Urban Meyer. The week prior, once again underdog Washington, led by former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkasian, took down the Trojans for the second straight season. His former boss, Pete Carroll, had moved on this year, but Sarkasian was facing off against his former co-worker and BCS school rodeo clown, Lane Kiffin.

Only the brave, or utterly stupid, will mess with some of the incredibly low spreads tossed out during conference play. Money and pride still remain to be won, however, for those with a close eye for detail of course. For the few and brave, below are a set of BCS conference games sure to raise the blood pressure of both coaches and fans. Will the favorites lose? Maybe, and not all, but do the games have a chance to be even closer than what the experts think? Definitely.

Arizona -4.5 over Washington – Why Washington will beat it: The Wildcats are playing without their starting quarterback Nick Foles and were lucky to get past BCS conference cellar dweller Washington State last week.

UConn -2.5 over Louisville – Why Louisville will beat it: The Huskies have been a wreck and now have to turn back to quarterback Zach Frazer. Louisville’s losses have come to three teams proven better than advertised in Kentucky, Oregon State and Cincinnati.

Iowa -6.5 over Wisconsin – Why Wisconsin will beat it: The last three times these teams played both ranked, the Badgers won twice. In all three games the margin of victory was an average of five points.

Miami (FL) -7 over North Carolina – Why UNC will beat it: The Tar Heels have the Hurricanes number the last four years. Former Miami coach Butch Davis always has his Heels ready for Miami. Three for Miami would be a better spread.

West Virginia -16 over Syracuse – Why Syracuse will beat it: This isn’t last year’s ‘Cuse team. The Orange are playing speed football, beating South Florida week six. The Mountaineers squeaked by the Bulls last week at home. Sixteen points better than the Orange seems high.

Clemson -5.5 over Georgia Tech – Why Tech will beat it: Apart from last week, the Tigers offense has been horrendous. The Yellow Jackets have also beaten the Tigers the last three years. Nesbitt and the offense are just getting hot, too.

Oklahoma -6 over Missouri – Why Missouri will beat it: The last two weeks, the No. 1 team has fallen to a ranked conference opponent. I’m not saying the Sooners will be team number three to fall, but nail-bitters against Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati so far this season are enough to think Missouri’s stiff defense will push this one to the last second.

Ohio State -27 over Purdue – Why Purdue will beat it: Somehow 27 points seems a bit high for a team that lost to Purdue last season, then beat the Boilermakers by an average of 14 in their other meetings the last five years. Purdue is a different team with quarterback Rob Henry under center, certainty not 27 points below OSU.


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