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February 8, 2011

College Football Report - NFL Combine Will Be Feast or Famine As Usual For NFL Scouts:

It’s countdown time for the 2011 NFL Combine. The Combine, which traditionally begins at the end of February every year, is the lone event keeping football fans everywhere sane up until the draft.

Some love the combine. TV personalities, fans and various NFL scouts get caught up in the workouts and gaudy numbers of prospects. Others, like most head coaches and old school scouts, could care less about the numbers.

Whatever category you fit into (I’m in the middle), the NFL Combine still serves as a good learning tool when breaking down player’s athletic ability, character and football smarts.

When you get past the 40-yard dash times and bench reps, there’s pass-rushing obstacles and rout running drills that are actually helpful when breaking down a prospect.

It seems nearly every year there are prospects whose stock skyrockets thanks to their combine performance, though. No matter how far you go back.

Combine busts can be traced back to offensive tackle Tony Mandarich in 1989 to defensive end Mike Mamula in 1995. Even with improved scouting, wide-eyed scouts continue to miss the mark at the most recent NFL Combines.

Matt Jones from Arkansas, who switched from quarterback to wideout at the 2004 combine, turned in a 4.37 40 time at 6-foot-6, 230-pounds. The Jaguars used their No. 21 overall pick on Jones that year, but he’s done nothing since to earn even a mid-round pick.

Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston (right) showed up looking like a chiseled roman statue in 2008. His numbers were as impressive, when he brought in a 4.65 40-time and 37 reps of 225 pounds. His stock soared and the Jets spent the No. 6 pick on Gholston. His name hasn’t been in any headlines since.

The Raiders have been the league’s most notorious team when it comes to taking a reach on NFL Combine warriors. Thanks much in part to owner Al Davis, who treats the combine like a luxury car show where top speeds and designs matter most, the Raiders drafts have been littered with the combine’s top performers. In 2009, the Black and Silver took a huge reach on Maryland wideout Darrius Heyward-Hey, who blazed a 4.30 forty, with the No. 7 pick.

Davis also has to live with previous first round picks JaMarcus Russell and kicker Sebastian Janikowski.

Last year, when Maryland offensive tackle Bruce Campbell (below) looked like a running back in an offensive tackles body, many expected the Raiders, who were in need of an offensive lineman, to jump at Campbell with the No. 8 pick. Campbell ran a 4.78 at 314-pounds. He also did 34 reps. He was prime Raider material.

Surprisingly, they held off, thanks to poor technique and important workouts. So did every other team in the draft. But when the fourth round came, the Raiders just couldn’t take it any longer, as they selected Campbell with the No. 8 pick in the fourth round. Campbell never started a game for the Raiders in 2010. Instead, third round pick Jared Veldheer of Hillsdale, another combine top performer, started 11 games at left tackle for Oakland.

Then there are the instances where players impress and live up to their enormous hype. Syracuse end Dwight Freeney ran a 4.48, had 28 reps and a 37-inch vertical at the 2002 combine. Since then, he’s made six Pro Bowls and brought in 94 sacks.

East Carolina running back Chris Johnson set a combine record in 2008 when he ran a 4.24 40-yard dash. Johnson could have kept running right out of Lucas Oil Stadium and missed the rest of the combine if he wanted to. Teams were sold. The Titans especially, who drafted Johnson with the No. 24 pick. Two years later, he’s a 2,000 yard rusher.

It’s hard to predict who’s going to impress the most at the 2011 NFL Combine. It’s not hard to look at college football’s top draft prospects and workout freaks that have the best odds. Some are already projected high picks, while others may help a team with their decision.

Here are the top eight performers who can impress or disappoint come Feb. 23 – March 1:

Martez Wilson, Illinois – 6-4, 250 – ILB

Wilson is an imposing prospect and has the ability to add even more weight to his already built frame. At 250-pounds, Wilson has been rumored to run a 4.4 40-yard dash. With the nerves and spotlight at the combine, even a 4.5 40 at his size would be remarkable.

Nate Solder, Colorado – 6-8, 315 – OT

A tight end when he arrived at Colorado, Solder has kept his light body athleticism throughout his years at Colorado. He’s been timed at 4.88 and brought in over a 600-pound squat. His body fat has been as low as eight percent at 315-pounds.

Allen Bailey, Miami (Fla.) – 6-4, 278 – DE

Bailey has been on the short list of ESPN writer Bruce Feldman’s workout warrior column for years. Described as an Adonis look by one draft expert, Bailey has a 450-pound bench, been timed at 4.65 in the 40 and vertical jumped 41 inches.

Jake Locker, Washington – 6-2, 228 – QB

Locker has been one of the best athletes on the field throughout his Washington career. He’s a solid build at 230-pounds and amazingly fast, as he expects to run a low 4.4 at the combine. He’s a tough runner, and added with the speed, may be too much of an athlete for a team to pass on.

Brooks Reed, Arizona – 6-3, 257 – OLB

Reed played with his hand on the ground at Arizona, but he’s been written in as a rush outside linebacker at the next level. Thanks to his athletic ability, the transition shouldn’t be that hard. With a 4.62 and 450-pound power clean, he’s got the speed and power to excel.

Torrey Smith, Maryland – 6-1, 205 – WR

Smith is lost in the shuffle of the top wideouts in the draft, but he’s an explosive solid player who will impress. He should run in the high 4.3’s and bring in a 40-inch vertical leap. Smith could move into the late first round with a solid workout.

Dontay Moch, Nevada – 6-2, 229 – OLB

Moch may draw the biggest crowd in the history of the combine, when it comes time for him to run his 40. He’s been accurately timed at 4.25 while at Nevada. That’s not a typo. He’s a bit undersized at 229, but a team can add weight, they can’t shave off a few tenths of a second on a 40. I’d bet Al Davis will be watching Moch.

Cecil Shorts III, Mount Union – 6-2, 210 – WR

Shorts has a lot to gain at the combine. A small school guy, he’s proven he can catch the ball having brought in at least 70 catches for three straight years. He’s also had 63 touchdown catches in four years at Mount Union, the same school as Colts wideout Pierre Garcon. If Shorts turns in a nice time – expected 4.45 – he could be an even bigger draft sleeper.

Photo Credit: Getty Images

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