The last major conference realignment in college football came during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. In some cases it was a blessing in disguise, for others involved, it’s been nothing but cloudy days.
In 2004, Virginia Tech and the University of Miami entered the ACC. It wasn’t a big move, having spent their previous years as a member of the Big East. A year later, in 2005, Boston College, also in the Big East, made the same move to the ACC.
So the Big East went shopping. Who they found were Louisville, South Florida and Cincinnati from Conference USA.
That’s not the end of the 2004-05 conference chaos, though. TCU moved from the CUSA to the Mountain West. Tulsa moved from the WAC to the CUSA. Central Florida switched from the Mid-American Conference to the CUSA. Army turned Independent. In all, 19 schools took a hop and skip into different leagues.
It should remind you of the mess the 2010 conference talk nearly laid upon the college football world. As many as 20 teams were once rumored to be heading one way or the other. The Big XII was nearly axed as a conference all together.
When it was all said and done, only five teams made the decision to switch conferences for the 2011 season and beyond. Boise State, Utah, Nebraska, Colorado and BYU will all make a switch. More will follow in 2012, but that’s another year and another story.
Some moves will be dramatic for the schools. Miami turned from a National Title contender in the Big East, to a struggling competitor in the ACC. Some take advantage of the fresh start. Cincinnati, who was better known as a basketball school in the CUSA, has won two conference titles and made two BCS Bowl appearances as a member of the Big East.
It’s time to take a look at how the 2011 five will fare in their first season in new conferences:
*All record perdictions before conference title and bowl games
Boise State Broncos
From: WAC – To: Mountain West
Key games…Georgia (In Atlanta), @ Toledo, Nevada, Fresno State, TCU, @ San Diego State, Air Force *Note, 2011 Mountain West schedule not officially released.
Key returns…Kellen Moore, QB, Doug Martin, RB, Nate Potter, OT, Billy Winn, DT, Chase Baker, DT
A change will…Still be a cakewalk. As long as the Broncos aren't competing against BCS schools week after week, they’ll continue to outsmart and outwork opponents. Boise has brought in seven 11 plus win seasons this decade, and a move to the Mountain West shouldn’t slow that run. They’ve got Kellen Moore for one last season, another reason not to sell the Broncos short in 2011.
At first glance…For the third straight year, Boise will start the season against a BCS conference team. This year, it will be an Atlanta trip to face the Dawgs. Georgia won’t be as big of a test as Virginia Tech was last year, but it should be a good game. The schedule gets a bit more difficult this season with the additions of TCU and San Diego State, while keeping on Nevada and Fresno State. An early season visit to Toledo is an interesting game, as well. One has to wonder how that visit worked out. With the added big games, an undefeated season may be hard to come by for the Broncos, though. Expect: 11-1*
Utah Utes
From: Mountain West – To: PAC-12
Key games…@ USC, @ BYU, Washington, Arizona State, @ Pittsburgh, @ Cal, Oregon State, @ Arizona, Colorado
Key returns…Jordan Wynn, QB, Tony Bergstrom, OT, Chaz Walker, LB, Tevita Stevens, OG, Matt Martinez, LB
A change will…Open huge doors for the Utes. Utah has been one of the most consistent non-automatic qualifying teams the last decade, and now they’ve finally got their chance to compete on a regular basis with the big boys. Those 10 and 11 win seasons won’t go unnoticed in the new PAC-12, but bringing them in may be a bit tougher than most expect.
At first glance…Instead of getting hyped up to play one big game in a three week span, the Utes are going to need to go into every game with the same intensity they brought into their past bowl games. That’s going to be the biggest change for Utah. They face a four week span that includes road games to USC and BYU, then a home visit from Washington. The Utes should still be able to bring a strong season, but another double-digit win season may take some time. Expect: 8-4
Nebraska Cornhuskers
From: Big XII – To: Big Ten
Key games…Fresno State, Washington, @ Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Penn State, @ Michigan, Iowa
Key returns…Taylor Martinez, QB, Rex Burkhead, RB, Jared Crick, DT, Lavonte David, LB, Alfonso Denard, CB, Brandon Kinnie, WR
A change will…Feel more like home. The Huskers have really always had that Big Ten feel to them. The fans have kind of always considered themselves more of a Midwest state, as well. The biggest change Nebraska will go through will be the physicality of the league. There are no finesse spread teams like Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the Big Ten. Luckily, the Huskers have always had a physical presence to them. The spread option change worked horribly for Michigan to start, but Nebraska has a heck of a defense behind them. Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonso Denard will be three of the best defenders in the Big Ten next season.
At first glance…The success of Nebraska will come down to the health of Martinez. There’s talk of him possibly losing his job next season, but I can’t see that happening. The defense will continue their dominance, but the offense will need to break in on some traditionally powerful defenses. The schedule is a bit rough, as they play every Big Ten power, too. Somehow, Illinois and Indiana got left off the schedule. If they can get past Wisconsin, Ohio State and MSU at midseason, they'll end the year with a lot of momentum. Expect: 10-2
BYU Cougars
From: Mountain West – To: Independent
Key games…@ Ole Miss, @ Texas, Utah, Central Florida, @ Oregon State, TCU, @ Hawaii
Key returns…J J Di Luigi, RB, Jake Heaps, QB, Cody Hoffman, WR, Matt Reynolds, OT, Jordan Pendleton, LB, Brandon Hanson, OG
A change will…Be a bumpy road. The Cougars have never gone through a start like they’ll face in 2011. They’re used to playing two BCS conference teams in a season, but next season, they'll double it to four. Add in basically three teams who could compete in BCS conferences, and you’ve got a major change. BYU was young in 2010 and Heaps is going to be a very good quarterback, but as Notre Dame has shown in the past, life as an Independent can be an unpredictable and overwhelming experience.
At first glance… A four game stretch, which includes road games to Ole Miss and Texas and home visits from Utah and UCF, will either deflate or ignite the season before it even really begins. UCF is no pushover anymore. Midseason games against Oregon State and TCU will be difficult to get by, as well. Lucky for BYU, they’ve filled the rest of their 13 game schedule with pushovers. If they can get one or two wins against the big schools, the season can at least be respectable. Expect: 8-5
Colorado Buffaloes
From: Big XII – To: PAC-12
Key games…@ Hawaii, California, Colorado State, @ Ohio State, @ Stanford, @ Washington, Oregon, @ Arizona State, USC, Arizona, @ Utah
Key returns…Will Pericak, DT, Rodney Steward, RB, Ryan Deeham, TE, Jon Major, LB, Ryan Miller, OG, Toney Clemons, WR
A change will…Bring on a fresh start. The Buffaloes are completely starting over. Not only will Colorado have a new conference in 2011, they’ll be under the lead of new head coach, Jon Embree. Embree, the former Washington Redskins tight end coach, is also a previous Colorado player. His biggest task will be to install a winning attitude back on campus. The Buffaloes haven’t had a winning season since 2005, but the PAC-12 will give them a fresh, clean start on a new season.
At first glance…There really isn’t even a two week stretch on the Buffaloes schedule that they’ll be able to drop the intensity. The schedule is packed with PAC-12 powers in Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC and Arizona. Add in an away trips to Ohio State and new PAC-12 member Utah, and you’ve got a potentially stressful first season for Embree. The Buffaloes will have a better recruiting base playing in the PAC-12, rather than competing against Texas and Oklahoma, so they’ll have to pieces to turn it around in the future. Next season might not be that time, though. Expect: 5-7
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